The 2023 Birmingham Bowl features a matchup between the Sun Belt champions and a Power Five school, with the (11-2) Sun Belt Champion Troy Trojans facing the (7-5) Duke Blue Devils. Troy comes into this game riding a wave of success, having won ten straight after a challenging 1-2 start. The Trojans have participated in nine bowl games in their program’s history, boasting a commendable 6-3 record in those matchups. On the other side, Duke enters this contest having won two out of their last four games. The Blue Devils have a history of 15 bowl appearances, holding a 7-8 record in those games.
Troy enters the game as a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 44.5. With that information in mind, let’s dive into my preview for the 2023 Birmingham Bowl.
Troy Trojans
The Troy Trojans enter this bowl game on a red-hot streak, having won ten in a row, including the Sun Belt Championship. They average 31.2 points per game and 439.8 total yards of offense per game. Head coach Jon Sumrall won’t be coaching in the bowl game, having taken the head coach job at Tulane. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will serve as the interim head coach. Fortunately, quarterback Gunnar Watson will play in the bowl game, having thrown for 3,333 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.
While Watson excels in the passing game, running back Kimani Vidal has been even more impressive in the rushing attack. Vidal rushed for 1,582 yards (2nd in the nation) on 5.6 yards per carry and added 14 touchdowns. These two players have been key to the Trojans’ offense all season, and their performance will be crucial for an eleventh consecutive win.
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils find themselves in a rebuilding phase as head coach Mike Elko departs for Texas A&M. Duke is also losing their starting quarterback and leading rusher to the transfer portal, and their second-leading receiver is opting out of the bowl game. This leaves many uncertainties for the offense heading into the Birmingham Bowl matchup.
However, quarterback Grayson Loftis, who appeared in seven games this season, is set to start. Loftis has thrown for 831 passing yards, 8 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Duke offense will need players to step up significantly. Despite averaging 27.8 points per game this season, they struggled with third-down conversions, boasting a 35.7% conversion rate. To compete, Duke must elevate their offensive performance to a higher level.
Defensively, the Blue Devils had a solid season, allowing 19.8 points per game and giving up 367.7 total yards of offense per game. However, they won’t be at full strength in this bowl matchup, losing two starting defensive linemen, one starting linebacker, and one starting cornerback. Additionally, starting defensive lineman DeWayne Carter could sit out due to a Senior Bowl invite. With these uncertainties, the Blue Devils face challenges on the defensive end, especially against a talented offense like Troy.
Betting Trends
-Troy is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
-The over is 4-1 in Troy’s last 5 games overall.
-Duke is 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games as an underdog.
-The over is 5-1 in Duke’s last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one official play here in the 2023 Birmingham Bowl. My official play is over 44.5 -108 for one unit. I think Troy is going to have a field day against Duke’s short-handed defense. Duke will put up a little bit of a fight, but this over hits easily by the beginning of the fourth quarter. Ride the over in this one to the cash counter to start Saturday’s slate off with a bang.