The 2023 Camellia Bowl has an intriguing matchup between the Sun Belt and the MAC, with the matchup being between the 6-6 Arkansas State Red Wolves and the 6-6 Northern Illinois Huskies. Arkansas State comes into this one winning three out of their last five games. The Red Wolves have appeared in 10 bowl games and have a 4-6 record in those games. Northern Illinois comes into this one winning four out of their last six, including winning the final two games to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2021. The Huskies have appeared in 14 bowl games and have a 4-10 record in those games. Arkansas State comes into this one as a three point favorite with the over/under set at 54.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Camellia Bowl.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Arkansas State Red Wolves started off horrible in 2023. However, they fought and became bowl eligible. Offensively, they average 27.8 points per game and average 391.3 total yards of offense per game as well. This offense is led by quarterback Jaylen Raynor. Raynor threw for 2,293 passing yards to go along with 15 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions. None of Raynor’s weapons are entering the portal so they will be locked and loaded against this Northern Illinois defense.
Defensively, the Red Wolves have struggled in 2023. They allow 31.2 points per game and give up 457.1 total yards of offense per game as well. Arkansas State has given up 30+ points in six games in 2023 and has a 2-4 record in those games. The Red Wolves will be without starting linebacker Javante Mackey who entered the transfer portal and committed to Memphis. Arkansas State is going to need some guys to step up if they want to win this game. If not, they will struggle against Northern Illinois’ offense.
Northern Illinois Huskies
The Huskies won their last two games in order to make it to a bowl game. Northern Illinois averages 25.3 points per game to go along with 372.9 total yards of offense per game. They are led by running back Antario Brown who rushed for 1,164 yards to go along with 6.2 yards per carry and 10 touchdowns. Northern Illinois also has Rocky Lombardi starting at quarterback for them. He has thrown for 2,074 passing yards to go along with 10 passing touchdowns and 5 interceptions. This Huskies offense needs to continue their hot streak if they want to compete with Arkansas State.
Defensively, the Huskies have been solid overall. They allow 21.2 points per game and rank 56th in the nation in total yards of offense allowed per game (328.6). Northern Illinois is also top 25 in the nation in passing yards allowed per game as well. The Huskies have given up 30+ points three times in 2023 and they have a 0-3 record in those games. Northern Illinois is losing their starting edge rusher George Gumbs who is entering the transfer portal.
Betting Trends
-Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Arkansas State is 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games as a favorite.
-The under is 4-2 in Northern Illinois’ last 6 games overall.
-Northern Illinois is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one play in this game and no it is not an under. The official play is over 54.5 -110 odds for one unit. I think that the Red Wolves are going to be able to score, but they are going to struggle to stop Northern Illinois. Arkansas State is going to win this game, but with the line at 3 I am nervous about taking it. So I will just take the over in this one to the cash counter.
