The 2023 Cotton Bowl is taking place at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, Texas. We have the matchup of the 10-2 Missouri Tigers and the 11-1 Ohio State Buckeyes. Missouri comes into this one winning their last three games. The Tigers have appeared in 35 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 15-20 record in those games. Ohio State comes into this one after the big loss to Michigan that knocked them out of the race for the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes have appeared in 55 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 27-28 record in those games. Ohio State is a 4.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 49. Here is my preview for the 2023 Cotton Bowl.
Missouri Tigers
The Missouri Tigers put together a great season and I am one of the only ones that saw it coming. Offensively, the Tigers average 34.1 points per game to go along with averaging 452.7 total yards of offense per game. Missouri is led by quarterback Brady Cook. Cook threw for 3,189 passing yards to go along with 20 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. As good as Cook was for the Tigers, they have two talented playmakers that have made them as good of an offense as they were in 2023. Wide receiver Luther Burden (83 receptions 1,197 receiving yards 8 touchdowns) and running back Cody Schrader (1,489 rushing yards, 6 yards per carry, and 13 touchdowns) are the Tigers big two playmakers. If the Missouri Tigers want a shot at beating a team like Ohio State, these three need to have their best game of the season.
Defensively, the Tigers put together a good season in 2023. They allow 22.3 points per game to go along with giving up 367.7 total yards of offense. Missouri isn’t losing any of their key defensive players in the transfer portal. This game means something to Missouri and we will see why early on in this one. The Tigers gave up 30+ points in three games this season. In those three games, the Tigers were 1-2 in those games. If Missouri wants to compete in this one, they are going to have to keep this short-manned Ohio State offense under 30 points.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes put together a fantastic season, but one loss to their rival put them here in the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State’s offense averaged 32.8 points per game to go along with 435.1 total yards of offense. The Buckeyes are down their two top wideouts, starting quarterback Kyle McCord transferred, and Miyan Williams has opted out. Luckily, the Buckeyes have two weapons for Devin Brown that will be essential for this offense. They have running back TreVeyon Henderson and wideout Emeka Egbuka, who will play in the bowl game. Henderson rushed for 854 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns on the season. Egbuka had a down year, but we saw him go off in the Rose Bowl against Utah last season. These two are going to be who Ryan Day will lean on offensively in this Cotton Bowl matchup.
Defensively, the Buckeyes were tremendous in 2023. They allow 11 points per game and give up 271.9 total yards of offense per game. They rank 6th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game (147.4). Ohio State will be without three of their defensive starters including linebacker Tommy Eichenberg. However, they will have guys like Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, and Jordan Hancock available for this bowl matchup. I think Ohio State’s defense will have their hands full with Missouri’s offense. However, it isn’t like they haven’t faced a top offense before. Look for the Buckeyes to rely on their big names to try and get the job done defensively.
Betting Trends
-Missouri is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
-The over is 7-3 in Missouri’s last 10 games.
-The under is 7-2 in Ohio State’s last 9 games.
-Ohio State is 2-7 straight up in their last 9 games against a SEC opponent.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one play in this Cotton Bowl showdown. My official play is Missouri +4.5 -110 odds for one unit. This game means more to Missouri than it does to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a ton of players not playing in this bowl game. Missouri has their big three on offense playing. Ride the Tigers to keep this close and they have a chance to win this game outright against Ohio State. Look for Missouri to cap off their best season since 2014 with a huge bowl victory.
