The 2023 Duke’s Mayo Bowl is taking place at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. We have the 8-4 UNC Tar Heels going up against the 8-4 West Virginia Mountaineers. UNC comes into this one losing four out of their last six games. The Tar Heels have appeared in 37 bowl games. They have a 15-22 record in those 37 bowl appearances. West Virginia comes into this one winning four out of their last five and they have their head coach safely out of the hot zone. The Mountaineers have appeared in 39 bowl games and they have a 16-23 record in those games. West Virginia comes into this one as a 6.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 55.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
North Carolina Tarheels
The UNC Tarheels put together a good season in 2023. Offensively, UNC averages 36.6 points per game to go along with 515.3 total yards (5th in the nation). UNC will be without starting quarterback Drake Maye, who’s getting ready for the NFL Draft. One good thing for UNC is leading rusher Omarion Hampton is playing in the bowl game. He has rushed for 1,442 rushing yards (5th in the nation) on 6.2 yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns. Mack Brown is going to need to get this team right with all the talent that is going to the transfer portal and ones that won’t play to prepare for the NFL Draft. They have backup Connor Harrell starting for them and I think he has the potential to be good for the Tar Heels here.
Defensively, the Tar Heels have struggled in 2023. They allow 27.1 points per game and give up 422.7 total yards of offense per game as well. UNC Is losing stud linebacker Cedric Gray to teh NFL draft, and starting DL Myles Murphy is going to the NFL Draft but is playing in the bowl game. UNC has given up 30+ points in seven games in 2023. They are 3-4 in those seven games. If UNC wants to win this game, they are going to want to contain the Mountaineers offense and keep them off the field as much as possible.
West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers looked really good in 2023. They average 31.6 points per game and average 442.6 total yards of offense per game. West Virginia is a top ten team in rushing yards per game. This offense is good because of running back CJ Donaldson, but he will be out for the bowl game. This team will have the offense run through by quarterback Garrett Greene. Greene threw for 2,178 passing yards while adding 708 rushing yards on 6.4 yards per carry and added 28 total touchdowns with 4 interceptions. If the West Virginia offense wants to succeed they are going to need Greene to have a big game.
Defensively, the Mountaineers are alright. They allow 27.5 points per game and they give up 398.4 total yards of offense. The Mountaineers had some good defensive efforts this season and that is why they won eight games. They gave up 30+ points in five games this season. West Virginia had a 1-4 record in those five games. If the Mountaineers want to win this game, they are going to want to contain Mack Brown’s offense to under 30 points.
Betting Trends
-UNC is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
-The over has hit in 5 out of UNC’s last 5 games against a Big 12 opponent.
-The over is 6-1 in West Virginia’s last 7 games.
-West Virginia is 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one play here in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. The official play is the over 55.5 -112 for one unit. Even with all the players out for UNC, I like this offense to be able to put up points in this one. This game has a 34-27 type of feel to it. West Virginia should win the game, but the number is a little too high for my liking. I will take the over and ride it to the cash counter.