The 2023 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl features a matchup between a Sun Belt team and a Mountain West team, with the (6-6) Georgia State Panthers facing the (6-6) Utah State Aggies. Georgia State enters this game on a challenging note, having lost five straight after a promising 6-1 start to the season. The Panthers have participated in five bowl games, holding a 3-2 record in those matchups. On the other side, Utah State secured bowl eligibility with a double-overtime victory against New Mexico. The Aggies have been part of 15 bowl games in their program’s history, maintaining a 6-9 record in those appearances.

Utah State is favored by 1.5 points in this matchup, with the over/under set at 59.5. With these details in mind, let’s dive into my preview for the 2023 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Georgia State Panthers

The Georgia State offense showed promise early in the season but experienced a gradual decline. They averaged 25.8 points per game and 381.2 total yards of offense per game. However, the Panthers will be without key contributors as running back Marcus Carroll (1,350 rushing yards, 4.9 yards per carry, 13 touchdowns) transfers to Missouri, top wideout Robert Lewis transfers to Auburn, and starting right tackle Montavious Cunningham transfers to Virginia Tech. The offensive burden will heavily fall on quarterback Darren Grainger, who threw for 2,368 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. Grainger is also expected to be the leading rusher, having rushed for 625 yards on 4.6 yards per carry with 8 rushing touchdowns. With these significant losses, the offense may turn into a one-man show unless other players step up for Georgia State.

Defensively, the Panthers face challenges, allowing 30.8 points per game and 447.5 total yards of offense per game. Losing starting cornerback Bryquice Brown to a transfer to Boston College and leading tackler linebacker Jontrey Hunter opting out of the bowl game further complicates matters. In their last five games, Georgia State struggled defensively, giving up an average of 41.8 points per game and allowing 40+ points in four consecutive games. Although they won’t face an offense as dynamic as those in their recent matchups, signs of concern persist. The Panthers need a strong defensive effort if they aim to secure another bowl victory.

Utah State Aggies

The Aggies needed a double overtime victory over New Mexico to become bowl eligible. They average 34.1 points per game and they average 465.1 total yards of offense per game as well. Utah State will be without both of their top two quarterbacks due to injuries. So they will turn to Levi Williams who is beginning his NAVY SEAL training next season. Williams spent three seasons at Wyoming where he was good for the Cowboys. In his first ever start it was against Georgia State back in 2019 when he was a redshirt freshman and it was in the Arizona Bowl. Williams has help though as the Aggies have three receivers with 600+ receiving yards on the season. Terrel Vaughn (75 receptions 805 receiving yards 10 touchdowns), Jalen Royals (61 receptions 934 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns) and Micah Davis (36 receptions 628 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns) are their three playmaker receivers. As good as these three are they have two running backs that average over 6 yards per carry as well in Davon Booth and Rahsul Faison. This Utah State offense is loaded with talent and we will see it first hand in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. 

Defensively is where we see the Aggies struggle. They allow 33.8 points per game and allow 425.8 total yards of offense per game. Utah State will be without starting safety Devin Dye who is entering the transfer portal and cornerback Avante Dickerson could miss the bowl game with an injury. The Aggies gave up 30+ points in seven games in 2023. In those seven games they posted a 2-5 record in those games. If the Aggies want to win this bowl game, they are going to need to keep Georgia State under the 30 point mark. 

Betting Trends

-The under is 6-3 in Georgia State’s last 9 games.

-Georgia State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

-The over is 8-3 in Utah State’s last 11 games.

-The under is 12-2 in Utah State’s last 14 December games.

The Don’s Best Bet

I have only one play in this game but it is the correct play and you are going to want to take it. The play is Utah State -120 for one unit. Georgia State lost a ton in the transfer portal, if they had those players I think they would win outright. Utah State has the weapons advantage and I know both defenses aren’t great so definitely keep an eye on the over. However, we will just take the Aggies here to win this game outright.