The 2023 Fenway Bowl is taking place at Fenway Park in Boston Massachusetts. We have the matchup of the 11-2 AAC Champion SMU Mustangs going up against the 6-6 Boston College Eagles. SMU comes into this one winning nine straight games after a 2-2 start to the season. The Mustangs have made 18 bowl appearances in their program’s history. They have a 7-10-1 record in those 18 bowl games. Boston College comes into this one with three straight losses. The Eagles have made 27 bowl appearances in their program’s history. They have a 14-13 record in those 27 bowl games. SMU comes into this one as a 10.5 point favorite with the over/under set at 47.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Fenway Bowl.
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs have put together a great 2023 campaign. Offensively, they average 40.6 points per game (6th in the nation) and they average 473.8 total yards of offense per game as well (16th in the nation). The Mustangs were led by quarterback Preston Stone but he injured his leg and is out for the remainder of the season. Now they have Kevin Jennings who didn’t look too hot in the AAC championship. The key for this SMU offense in this matchup will be their rushing attack led by Jaylan Knighton. Knighton rushed for 720 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns. SMU will look to manage the clock and win their 10th consecutive game to end a remarkable 2023 season.
Defensively, the Mustangs were great this season. They allow 17.4 points per game and give up 320.2 total yards of offense. SMU holds opponents to under 190 passing yards per game and allows opponents to convert 27.1% of their third down attempts. The Mustangs have allowed 30+ points in 3 games this season. They are 2-1 in those games. This Mustangs defense doesn’t have any key defensive players missing this one. They want to win this game and we will see that early on in this one.
Boston College Eagles
Boston College started off the season hot, but a three game losing streak has them stumbling into bowl season. Offensively, they average 25 points per game and 394.3 total yards of offense. The quarterback play of Thomas Castellanos wasn’t the best, but he was the team’s leading rusher. Castellanos has 957 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry and 11 rushing touchdowns. Another name in their rushing attack that is good is running back Kye Robichaux. Robichaux rushed for 691 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry and added 7 rushing touchdowns. This run-heavy offense goes up against a good rush defense so we will have to see how this looks at Fenway.
Defensively, the Eagles struggled in 2023. They allow 29.5 points per game and give up just under 400 total yards of offense per game. Boston College allows 193.8 rushing yards per game and allows opponents to convert on just under 40 percent of their third down conversions. Boston College gave up 30+ points in four games in 2023. They have a 0-4 record in those games. If Boston College wants to win this game they have to stop a top ten scoring offense from putting up a lot of points. If they can do that, they have a chance to win this “home” bowl game.
Betting Trends
-SMU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.
-The over is 5-2 in SMU’s last 7 games.
-The over is 10-4 in Boston College’s last 14 games.
-Boston College is 2-7 straight up in their last 9 as an underdog.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one official play in this game. My official play here is over 47.5 -112 odds for one unit. SMU’s offense is going to have a field day in this Fenway Bowl matchup. Jennings is going to have his best game of his career. I think Boston College can put up 14-17 and SMU will take up the rest of the total. Ride the over to the cash counter to start this Thursday off on the right foot.
