After an embarrassing loss in the Famous Toastery Bowl, we are back in action with a 4-5 record (-1.5u) in bowl season. Now, we move onto the 2023 Frisco Bowl which has the potential to be a great game. UTSA comes into this bowl game winning seven out of their last eight games after a horrendous 1-3 start. The Roadrunners have made four straight bowl appearances now and five overall. In their previous four bowl games, UTSA is 0-4. Marshall comes into this one losing four out of their last six games. The Thundering Herd have played in 19 bowl games and have a 13-6 record. Coming into this one, the Roadrunners are a 13 point favorite with the over/under set at 52.5.
UTSA Roadrunners
The UTSA Roadrunners had a good first season in the AAC. Offensively, the Roadrunners average 31.7 points per game and average 438.3 total yards of offense per game as well. This offense still runs through quarterback Frank Harris. Harris threw for 2,506 passing yards to go along with 18 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Good news for UTSA is their leading receiver Joshua Cephus will play in their bowl game. Cephus had 81 receptions to go along with 1,047 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Another key factor for this offense has to be running back Kevorian Barnes. Barnes rushed for 698 rushing yards on 5 yards per carry and added 6 touchdowns. This offense is good and goes up against a Marshall defense that has struggled in 2023.
Defensively, the Roadrunners aren’t stellar. They allow 24.7 points per game to go along with allowing 390.6 total yards of offense per game as well. UTSA gave up 30+ points only three times this season and in those three games they have a 1-2 record. The Roadrunners will be without the AAC Defensive Player of the Year in EDGE rusher Trey Moore who is entering the transfer portal. Without Moore, I still think this defense has a good chance at making trouble for the Thundering Herd.
Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall has struggled offensively in 2023. They average 23.3 points per game to go along with 375.2 total yards of offense per game. The Thundering Herd will be without starting quarterback Cam Fancher who is entering the transfer portal. They will have Cole Pennington, son of former NFL quarterback Chad Pennington, start for them. One piece of good news for the Thundering Herd is that running back Rasheen Ali should be playing in the bowl game. Ali rushed for 1,043 rushing yards to go along with 5.1 yards per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns. If the Thundering Herd can get Ali going against this Roadrunner defense, they have a chance at keeping this close.
Defensively, the Thundering Herd struggled in 2023. They allow 28.2 points per game and allow 391.8 total yards of offense per game. The Thundering Herd will be without starting safety J.J. Roberts who missed the final two games due to an injury. Marshall gave up 30+ points in six games in 2023. They had a 2-4 record in those games. If Marshall’s defense can hold this UTSA offense under 30 points, they will put themselves in a good position to succeed.
Betting Trends
-The under is 5-2 in UTSA’s last 7 games overall.
-UTSA is 7-0 straight up in their last 7 games as a favorite.
-Marshall is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
-The under is 4-2 in Marshall’s last 6 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have had a bad track record with this style of bet in the bowl season. I am 1-3 in betting the under during bowl season, BUT I am taking under 51.5 -110 for one unit. Marshall is losing more talent than UTSA is in the transfer portal. Defensively, the Thundering Herd will get the stops, but won’t be able to capitalize on them. With the spread being as high as it is makes me nervous to pick a side. A fun stat that I will leave you with is that the under is 6-1 in the Thundering Herd’s last seven games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. We ride the under in this one to the cash counter and turn our fortunes around.
