The 2023 Guaranteed Rate Bowl is taking place at Chase Field in Phoenix. This matchup will see the 8-4 Kansas Jayhawks and the 9-4 Mountain West Championship runner-up UNLV Rebels. Kansas comes into this one winning three out of their last five games. Both of their losses were in one score games. The Jayhawks have become bowl eligible for back to back seasons for the first time since 07-08. Kansas has appeared in 13 bowl games and has a 6-7 record in those games.

UNLV comes into this one losing two straight including the Mountain West title game. The Rebels became bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. They have appeared in four bowl games in their program’s history. UNLV has a 3-1 record in those bowl matchups. Kansas is a 13 point favorite here with the over/under set at 67.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Guaranteed Rate Bowl. 

Kansas Jayhawks

The Kansas Jayhawks are back to a bowl game for a second straight season. Offensively, the Jayhawks average 33.6 points per game and average 443.3 total yards of offense per game as well. A big part of this Jayhawks offense is their rushing attack, which is led by running back Devin Neal. Neal has rushed for 1,209 rushing yards on 6.6 yards per carry and added 15 rushing touchdowns. They also have two quarterbacks that have played well. No matter who starts between Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, this offense is going to be entertaining to watch.

Defensively, Kansas is a Big 12 defense that we have seen in year’s past. They allow 25.4 points per game and give up 390.1 total yards of offense per game. Kansas could be without defensive end Austin Booker, who would be a big loss for this defense. Kansas gave up 30+ points in four games in 2023. They had a 1-3 record in those games. If Kansas can keep UNLV’s offense off the field after third down attempts, which they allow 42.3% of third down conversions to succeed, they will be in a good spot in this bowl matchup. 

UNLV Rebels 

The UNLV Rebels surprised a lot of people in 2023. Offensively, they average 34.3 points per game and 423.1 total yards of offense per game. The Rebels are led by quarterback Jayden Maiava. Maiava has thrown for 2,794 passing yards to go along with 14 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His great play is in part due to his number one target Ricky White. White has 82 receptions to go along with 1,386 receiving yards (4th in the nation) and 7 touchdowns. These two have been huge for the Rebels offense and they will need to continue their success to compete against Kansas. 

Defensively, the Rebels have been okay this season. They allow 27 points per game and allow 414.2 total yards of offense per game. The Rebels have given up 30+ points in five games this season. They have a 1-4 record in those games. If the Rebels want to win this game they need to contain the Jayhawks high powered offense and keep them under 30 points. 

Betting Trends

-Kansas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. 

-Kansas is 9-2 in their last 11 games as a favorite.

-The over is 4-1 in UNLV’s last 5 games.

-UNLV is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.

The Don’s Best Bet 

I have only one play here in this bowl matchup. My official play is UNLV +13 -112 odds for one unit. I think UNLV’s offense is going to be able to keep this game close. Kansas is going to run the ball a ton and try to make it a possession game with UNLV. Underdogs have been great at covering so far and I think this continues here. Take the Rebels and the points here.