The 2023 Holiday Bowl takes place at Petco Park in San Diego, California. We have the matchup of the 10-3 Louisville Cardinals and the disappointing 7-5 USC Trojans. Louisville comes into this one with an ACC Championship loss to Florida State. The Cardinals have appeared in 24 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 11-12-1 record in those 24 bowl games. USC comes into this bowl game having a disappointing season. They lost three straight games and look to be the worst USC team that we have seen in a while. USC has appeared in 56 bowl games and they have a 35-21 record in those bowl matchups. This game has Louisville as a 7 point favorite with the over/under set at 58.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Holiday Bowl.
Louisville Cardinals
The Louisville Cardinals surprised me in 2023. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 30.9 points per game and averaged 437.2 total yards of offense per game. Louisville will be without two of their more talented weapons. Jawhar Jordan (1,128 rushing yards on 6.2 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns) and Jabari Thrash (63 receptions 858 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns) are entering the NFL Draft and will not play in the bowl game. Quarterback Jack Plummer has looked good this season as he has thrown for 3,063 passing yards to go along with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Plummer will have to be a good game manager to control the pace of this game.
Defensively, the Cardinals were very good in 2023. They allowed 19.7 points per game and gave up 325.2 total yards of offense. Louisville is also great at stopping the run as they are in the top 30 in the nation at rushing yards per game. Safety Cam’Ron Kelly is preparing for the NFL Draft but will play in the bowl game. This Louisville defense gave up 30+ points in four games in 2023. They went 2-2 in those games and their one loss was by one score. If Louisville wants to win this bowl game, this defense is going to be on top of their game.
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans have severely disappointed in 2023. Offensively, they average 41.8 points per game (4th in the nation) to go along with 491.6 total yards of offense (9th in the nation). The list of players not playing is super long. Caleb Williams is opting out, their stud wideout Brenden Rice is opting out, and their leading rusher MarShawn Lloyd is also opting out. Miller Moss will get the starting nod for the Trojans. The redshirt sophomore has shown some signs of potential, but with the lack of weapons this could be a rough outing for him and Lincoln Riley’s offense.
Defensively, the Trojans are abysmal. They allow 34.9 points per game and give up 454.5 total yards of offense. The Trojans gave up 30+ points in eight games in 2023. They went 3-5 in those games and it got bad after that loss to Notre Dame. This defense was never the same and it showed. USC’s defense is bad and the Louisville offense is going to exploit them.
Betting Trends
-Louisville is 11-3 straight up in their last 14 games.
-Louisville 12-3 straight up in their last 15 games as a favorite.
-USC are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games.
-The over is 17-3 in USC’s last 20 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one official play here in the 2023 Holiday Bowl. My official play here is under 58.5 -110 for one unit. With the way USC has looked, I don’t think they will have anything to get up for in this one. Louisville will control this game and kill the clock and the under is going to hit easily. Ride the under to the cash counter tonight.
