The 2023 Liberty Bowl is taking place in Memphis, Tennessee. We have the matchup of the (9-3) Memphis Tigers and the (7-5) Iowa Cyclones. Memphis comes into this one winning five out of their last six games. The Tigers have appeared in 14 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 6-8 record in those 14 bowl games. Iowa State comes into this one winning five out of their last seven games. The Cyclones have made 17 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 5-12 record in those games. Iowa State is a 10.5 point favorite here with the over/under set at 57.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Liberty Bowl.
Memphis Tigers
The Memphis Tigers put together a good season offensively. They average 39.7 points per game (7th in the nation) and average 459.6 total yards of offense per game as well. This Tigers offense runs through quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan has thrown for 3,516 passing yards to go along with 28 passing touchdowns and 9 interceptions. They had good quarterback play from Henigan paired with a playmaker like RB Blake Watson. Watson rushed for 1,045 rushing yards on 5.9 yards per carry and 14 rushing touchdowns. He also added 50 receptions to go along with 463 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns as well. These two are big time for the Memphis Tigers and I think that they can contribute greatly in this 2023 Liberty Bowl matchup.
Defensively, the Tigers have not been great. They allow 29 points per game and give up 434.5 total yards of offense. Memphis will be without starting safety Cameron Smith in this bowl game as he enters the transfer portal. The Tigers have allowed 30+ points in seven games in 2023. They have a 4-3 record in those games where they allow over 30 points in a game. If Memphis can keep Iowa State under 30 points, they have a realistic shot at winning this game outright.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones put together a good season in 2023. They average 26.3 points per game to go along with 363.6 total yards of offense. This Cyclones offense is led by quarterback Rocco Becht. Becht threw for 2,674 passing yards to go along with 20 passing touchdowns and 8 interceptions. This Cyclones offense is lucky that they have Becht leading the charge. It helps that both of his top two targets Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are both playing in this bowl game. Without those two, I would say the Cyclones offense would struggle. Look for Iowa State to rely on these two to help Becht and this offense succeed.
Defensively, the Cyclones were alright in 2023. They allow 21.5 points per game and give up 360 total yards of offense. This Cyclones defense isn’t good at stopping the pass so going up against a pass- heavy Memphis offense isn’t the greatest matchup for Iowa State. The Cyclones will be without starting cornerback TJ Tampa, who is opting out of the bowl game. That is a big loss for the Cyclones defense. Iowa State gave up 30+ points in two games this season and they went 1-1 in those games. The Cyclones defense will have their hands full against this Memphis offense. If Iowa State wants to win, they need to contain Seth Henigan.
Betting Trends
-The over is 6-0 in Memphis’ last 6 games.
-Memphis is 5-1 straight up in their last 6 games.
-Iowa State is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
-The under is 14-6 in Iowa State’s last 20 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one play here in this Liberty Bowl matchup. My official play here is Memphis +10.5 -110 odds for one unit. This line is a huge mistake by Vegas here. I think Memphis could easily keep this within a one score game. Iowa State is good defensively, but I like Memphis’ offense in this matchup. Look for Memphis to keep it within this number with ease. Ride the Tigers to the cash counter.
