The 2023 Music City Bowl is taking place at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. We have the matchup of 6-6 Auburn going up against 7-5 Maryland. The Tigers come into this one losing their last two games of the regular season. Auburn has been in 46 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 24-20-2 record in those games. Maryland comes into this one losing five out of their last seven. The Terrapins have appeared in 29 bowl games in their program’s history. They have a 13-14-2 record in those games. Auburn is a 4.5 point favorite here with the over/under set at 47.5. Here is my preview for the 2023 Music City Bowl.
Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers weren’t what their fans were hoping for in 2023. Offensively, they average 27.3 points per game to go along with 368.6 total yards of offense per game. This offense flourished off their rushing attack and they were led by Jarquez Hunter. Hunter rushed for 865 rushing yards to go along with 5.9 yards per carry and 7 rushing touchdowns. He was their big playmaker in 2023 and he will need to make some plays here today if Auburn wants to win the Music City Bowl. The Tigers were hoping for more from quarterback Payton Thorne. Thorne threw for 1,671 passing yards to go along with 15 passing touchdowns and 9 interceptions. His disappointing play was the reason why Auburn wasn’t able to take that next step offensively. They are going to run the ball a lot in this bowl matchup, and for a Maryland defense that is alright at stopping the run, this is going to be the key of the game.
Defensively, the Tigers were decent. They allowed 21.9 points per game to go along with giving up 375 total yards of offense. Auburn’s struggle defensively is all about how they contain the run game. They allow 159.4 rushing yards per game which is something we usually don’t see from an SEC defense. Even though they struggled at stopping the run, the Tigers only allowed over 30 points in two games this season (LSU and New Mexico State). They lost both of those games, but they did well against rivals like Ole Miss and Alabama this year. Auburn should be without three defensive starters, but look for them to want to show out for Hugh Freeze today.
Maryland Terrapins
The Maryland Terrapins started off really well in the 2023 season. A rough stretch at the end of the season put their record at 7-5. Offensively, the Terrapins average 29.6 points per game to go along with 412.4 total yards of offense per game. Maryland will be without their starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3,377 passing yards 25 touchdowns 11 interceptions) for this bowl game. Backup Billy Edwards should get the nod for the Terrapins. Edwards played in seven games last season and looked serviceable. The good news for Edwards is that he has both Jeshaun Jones (53 receptions 747 receiving yards 4 touchdowns) and Tai Felton (48 receptions 723 receiving yards 6 touchdowns) for this bowl game. Both of those two receivers are playmakers that can help this offense succeed in this matchup.
Defensively, the Terrapins were average in 2023. They allowed 23.3 points per game to go along with giving up 353.1 total yards of offense. Maryland will be without two defensive starters including their team leader in interceptions Tarheeb Still. The Terrapins allowed 30+ points in four games this season. They went 0-4 in those games and down the stretch they were not the same defense we saw earlier in the season. Since October, the Terrapins won two games and they had Ohio State on the ropes in their matchup. If Maryland wants to win this bowl game, their defense needs to play like they did in the first month of the season.
Betting Trends
-Auburn is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
-Auburn is 10-1 straight up in their last 11 as a favorite.
-The over is 4-1 in Maryland’s last 5 games.
-Maryland is 1-7 straight up in their last 8 games as an underdog.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have one play for this Music City Bowl showdown. My official play is over 47.5 -110 odds for one unit. Both defenses haven’t given me any reason why this game won’t go over. Maryland gives up points and I think even without Tagovailoa, the Terrapins are going to be able to score on Auburn. Ride the over to the cash counter to get ready for some New Year’s fun.
