We have a great battle here in the AAC Championship game on Friday night, with Tulane taking on Army. Tulane is back for the second straight season trying to avenge last year’s title game loss. On the other side, Army is in their first season in the AAC and has made it to the conference championship, which is a great accomplishment. The Green Wave are six point favorites with the over/under set at 46.5.
Tulane Green Wave
Tulane didn’t take the step back that I thought they were going to without quarterback Michael Pratt. Instead, we had Darian Mensah put up some solid numbers and control the offense. Mensah threw for 2,514 passing yards with a 20 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio. However, the bulk of this offense’s success relies heavily on running back Makhi Hughes. Hughes rushed for 1,306 rushing yards and added 15 rushing touchdowns. The Green Wave offense ranks 6th in the country in points per game (39.1) and 12th in rushing yards per game (212.9). With these two, this offense thrives. In the seven games this season Hughes has rushed for over 100 yards, Tulane is 6-1. If he rushes for over 100, Army is going to be in trouble.
Defensively, the Green Wave put up some impressive numbers this season. They only give up 18.4 points per game (16th in the nation) and 322.6 total yards of offense per game (12th in the nation). Opponents are also struggling to convert on third down, as Tulane only allows 31.8% to be converted. It is a well- balanced defensive group with big time playmakers like linebacker Tyler Grubbs, who leads the team in tackles. Look for this defense to have their hands full stopping this Army rushing attack.
Army Black Knights
Army has looked strong in year number one in the AAC, and a lot of that success stems from their offense. Army has averaged 32.7 points per game and is the number one rushing attack in the country. They average 312.5 rushing yards per game. Their rushing attack is led by the two-headed monster of quarterback Bryson Daily (1,348 rushing yards 25 rushing touchdowns) and running back Kanye Udoh (906 rushing yards 9 rushing touchdowns). Army needs these two guys to be on their A game if they want to succeed against Tulane.
As good as their offense is, their defense has been just as good. They only allow 15.1 points per game and rank 9th in the country in total yards of offense allowed per game (306.5). Good news for this defense is that this championship game will be played at home where they have had the most success this season. They allow 14.3 points per game at home and haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 30 points on them all season at home. This group is going to need to put up a fight if they want to win their first AAC championship.
Betting Trends
-Tulane is 4-1 ATS in last 5 games vs Army.
-Tulane is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs Army.
-The under is 4-2 in Army’s last 6 games.
-Army is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Don’s Best Bet
I have only one play here and it is the under 46.5 -112 for one unit. Both of these defenses intrigue me and their offenses are going to try and bleed the clock dry to keep the opposing offense off the field. This has a 20-17 type game written all over it. The under will hit with ease in this one and let’s enjoy this defensive effort today.
