It is officially conference championship week! This season, we have nine conference championship games, and the Don has picks for every single one of them. The Conference USA championship game kicks off the action, featuring a highly intriguing matchup between Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State. These two teams faced off just this past weekend in what turned out to be a fantastic battle. I’m beyond excited to see them go head-to-head again. Jacksonville State enters as a 4-point favorite, with the over/under set at 57.5. With that in mind, here’s my prediction for the 2024 C-USA championship game.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers wrapped up the season at 8-4, winning five of their last seven games. This offense thrives under quarterback Caden Veltkamp, whose leadership drives the team’s potent aerial attack. Western Kentucky ranks 21st in the country in passing yards per game (271.8), making the passing game the backbone of their success. Veltkamp’s two primary targets are Kisean Johnson (65 receptions, 830 yards, 6 touchdowns) and Easton Messer (45 receptions, 642 yards, 4 touchdowns). If the Hilltoppers want to defeat Jacksonville State for the second straight week, they’ll need their offense to consistently move the ball through the air.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers excel in pass defense but struggle against the run. They allow 208.3 rushing yards per game, which presents a major challenge against Jacksonville State’s top-five rushing attack. Last week, Western Kentucky gave up 229 rushing yards but managed to control the time of possession through their offense. To succeed this time, they’ll need key defensive playmakers like Hosea Wheeler and Devonte’ Matthews to step up and contain Jacksonville State’s high-powered rushing attack.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
The Gamecocks have made it to the conference championship in just their second season in the C-USA. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has quickly elevated this program to new heights. Offensively, the Gamecocks are ranked in the top 30 nationally in total yards per game (444.2) and 20th in points per game (35.4). They dominate on the ground, showcasing one of the nation’s most effective rushing attacks.
Leading the charge in the run game are their two top rushers, Tre Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff. Stewart ranks 7th nationally in rushing yards (1,400) and is tied for 6th in rushing touchdowns (20). However, Huff’s injury last week noticeably affected the offense, which wasn’t nearly as dynamic in his absence. If the Gamecocks hope to get revenge this week, they’ll need Huff back on the field.
Defensively, Jacksonville State allows 27 points per game and 221.7 passing yards per game. Against Western Kentucky’s strong aerial attack, this could pose significant issues. Last week, the Gamecocks gave up 426 total yards of offense to the Hilltoppers. To win their first C-USA championship, Jacksonville State needs key players like Antonio Carter and Fred Perry to deliver standout performances.
Betting Trends
-Under is 6-3 in Western Kentucky’s last 9 games.
-Western Kentucky is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
-Jacksonville State are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.
-The Gamecocks unders are 4-2 in their last 6 games.
The Don’s Best Bet
I’ve got two plays for this C-USA championship game. My first pick is Western Kentucky +4 (-110), and my second is under 57.5 (-108), with one unit on each. The Gamecocks have the home-field advantage, but with Tyler Huff likely not at 100%—or possibly sidelined altogether—I love the Hilltoppers getting four points. Jacksonville State will aim to control the tempo with their running game, but last week’s over/under was set at 62.5 and didn’t come close. Now, with the line dropped by five points for the championship, I feel even more confident in taking the under. Two plays and two winners to kick off the weekend on the right note.
