The 2024 Mountain West Championship caps off Friday’s slate of games. In my opinion, this will be the best non-Power Four conference championship game of the season. These teams met earlier this year in a thrilling, hard-fought battle, and now we get to see them clash again. The matchup features the (10-2) UNLV Rebels and the (11-1) Boise State Broncos, both riding multi-game winning streaks. It also highlights one of this year’s Heisman finalists. Boise State enters the game as a 4-point favorite, with the over/under set at 57.5. With that in mind, here’s a preview of the 2024 Mountain West Conference Championship game.
UNLV Rebels
Even with the challenges at the beginning of the season involving their original starting quarterback, this UNLV team has played with a clear purpose throughout the year. The offense averages 38.7 points per game (7th in the nation) and ranks in the top five in rushing yards per game (254.1). UNLV’s “three-headed monster”—quarterback Hajj Malik Williams, running back Jai’Den Thomas, and wide receiver Ricky White—has elevated this offense to heights it hasn’t reached in years. For UNLV to succeed, they must control the time of possession tonight.
On the defensive side, this UNLV team is formidable. They allow just 22 points per game and hold opponents to slightly over 100 rushing yards per game. However, facing Boise State’s high-powered offense will be a significant challenge. The two key players to watch are Jackson Woodard and Jalen Catalon, who lead the team in tackles and are critical playmakers. UNLV will need these two to anchor the defense if they hope to bring home the Mountain West title.
Boise State Broncos
Boise State has been on everyone’s radar all season, largely thanks to Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty. I backed the Broncos to make the playoff at the start of the season and got them at favorable odds—and now, that prediction is inching closer to reality. Boise State’s offense ranks in the top five nationally in both total yards per game (482.7) and points per game (40.6). Jeanty’s numbers are staggering: 2,228 rushing yards on 7.3 yards per carry and 28 rushing touchdowns this season. He is just 401 rushing yards away from breaking the NCAA single-season rushing record.
That said, this matchup against UNLV’s tough defense will be a challenge. In their earlier meeting, the Rebels held Jeanty to 128 rushing yards—his second-lowest total of the season—and one rushing touchdown. Once again, Jeanty will need to shoulder a heavy workload as the centerpiece of Boise State’s offense.
Defensively, the Broncos have been inconsistent. They allow 23.2 points per game and surrender 391.3 total yards of offense per game. The unit is anchored by safeties Zion Washington and Ty Benefield. While UNLV’s offense focuses heavily on the run, these two will need to deliver strong coverage to avoid getting caught off-guard by the Rebels’ play-action plays.
Betting Trends
-UNLV is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Boise State.
-Under is 4-2 in UNLV’s last 6 overall.
-Boise State 4-1 ATS in last 5 Friday home games.
-Boise State 11-0 SU in last 11 home games.
The Don’s Best Bet
My official play in this one is over 57.5 -112 for one unit. This has the chance to be a high scoring affair and both teams are definitely capable of putting up 30 or more each. The battle for the Mountain West title will be a great one and I am beyond excited to see these two teams collide one more time.
