As the 2025 NFL season draws ever closer, fans and bettors alike are turning their attention to the futures markets. While most eyes lock on Super Bowl odds and win totals, there’s a growing interest in identifying which teams are most likely to collapse, or unexpectedly rise from the bottom. The DraftKings’ “fewest wins” market offers intriguing clues.
Oddsmakers favor the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints to anchor the standings, but sharp observers see value further down the board. Let’s examine the data, contextualize the projections, and spotlight teams that could either nosedive or defy the narrative.
Browns and Saints: Paper Favorites With Flawed Cases
The Browns enter the 2025 season with the lowest projected win total at 4.5 and the shortest odds (+400) to finish with the fewest wins. Their 3-14 finish in 2024, combined with the league’s worst point differential outside Carolina, supports this bearish outlook. Despite offseason tweaks, Cleveland remains vulnerable, especially with a schedule ranked among the toughest in the league. Key questions linger about quarterback consistency and defensive depth.
Right behind Cleveland, the Saints are priced at +425 with a 6.5 win total. However, their Over 4.5 wins is heavily juiced (-230), suggesting bookmakers see them as slightly more competent than the Browns.
Among NFL future odds, these two teams sit near the bottom, a reflection of prolonged struggles and uncertain outlooks. The Saints have been underachieving for three consecutive seasons, and while their schedule is soft by league standards, New Orleans’ 5-12 record last year shows that even favorable matchups don’t guarantee results. If they stumble early, pressure will mount on their aging core and transitional offense.
Giants: The Smart Bet on Collapse
Oddsmakers give the New York Giants +600 odds to post the league’s fewest wins, and it’s a wager that holds serious appeal. Like the Browns, the Giants also finished 3-14 in 2024, but their 2025 situation may be even more dire. They face the toughest strength of schedule, and their first-half slate could quickly spiral out of control. At home, they host elite contenders like the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, and 49ers, matchups that offer little room for missteps.
On the road, the Giants encounter similarly unfavorable conditions, and they’ll likely be underdogs in nearly every game. If early losses mount, head coach Brian Daboll’s job could be in jeopardy by midseason.
Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart may find himself behind a shaky offensive line without reliable weapons. That instability could unravel their season and make a +600 ticket feel like a steal. The only team on their schedule seemingly within reach is the Saints, already judged as flawed themselves.
Jaguars: Perception Outpaces Reality
With odds of +3000 and a projected win total of 7.5, the Jaguars appear mispriced. After a 4-13 record last season, Jacksonville seems to be judged more on Trevor Lawrence’s draft pedigree than recent performance. Even when healthy, Lawrence went just 2-8 as a starter in 2024. That raises doubts about his ability to carry a flawed roster through a 17-game slate.
According to the latest NFL team reports, the Jaguars did make several offseason upgrades, but with a first-year head coach, the system could take time to gel. Their division offers some winnable matchups, but their defensive issues remain glaring. Losses to lower-tier teams like the Raiders, Bears, and Jets last season underscore how fragile their foundation is.
At +3000, Jacksonville offers compelling mid-range value for bettors looking beyond the obvious candidates.
Patriots: A Mirage of Momentum?
At +7000, the Patriots represent one of the more surprising entries in this market. Last year, they finished 4-13 and ranked 30th in points scored. Yet projections seem to expect a leap forward, partly due to Mike Vrabel’s leadership and rookie quarterback Drake Maye’s upside. Those two variables bring optimism, but also uncertainty.
Despite some roster reinforcements, it’s unclear if they’ll deliver a tangible impact. Stefon Diggs may be past his prime, and Maye still must adjust to NFL speed. The Patriots have posted back-to-back four-win seasons and are now expected to nearly double that output.
Even with one of the league’s easier schedules, if Maye falters or Vrabel struggles to spark improvement, New England could again find itself near the bottom.
For bettors chasing volatility, this +7000 ticket might be the smart dart throw.
Broncos: Regression Could Be Lurking
Denver sits at +13000 in the fewest wins market, and while that sounds extreme, it’s not beyond imagination. The Broncos shocked many by reaching 10 wins in 2024 behind rookie QB Bo Nix. But second-year slumps are real, and the offense hasn’t added proven difference-makers. With more defensive tape available on Nix, opposing coordinators could expose limitations.
The defense was a strength last season, ranking third in points allowed. However, the same personnel had ranked near the bottom the year before. If that unit regresses even slightly (and the offense stagnates), Denver could fall fast in the standings. While unlikely to lead the league in losses, the Broncos’ wide range of outcomes makes them a worthy longshot consideration.
Honorable Mentions: Titans and Jets
The Titans, at +1200, quietly present real downside. Their quarterback situation remains unsettled, and their offense lacks explosiveness.
A repeat of their 3-14 campaign from 2024 wouldn’t shock anyone. Meanwhile, the Jets (+800) continue to ride out the league’s longest playoff drought. Their 5-12 record from last year included a slew of listless performances, and quarterback uncertainty remains. While their defense has playmakers, the offense must prove it can sustain drives and finish in the red zone.
It’s Not Always the Worst That Wins
Historically, teams pegged to finish last rarely do so unless clear dysfunction is evident early. That’s why betting markets often reward those who look past the favorites.
The Browns and Saints are obvious picks, but neither offers much bang for the buck. The Giants combine long odds with a bleak outlook and an unforgiving schedule, making them the most intriguing choice among the top three.
Further down, the Jaguars offer mid-tier exposure rooted in misplaced optimism, while the Patriots and Broncos highlight how betting futures often come down to the gap between narrative and reality. The 2025 season promises surprises, and those who spot the cracks early may end up holding the most profitable tickets by year’s end.
Content reflects information available as of 01/07/2025; subject to change.