College basketball’s classic programs have never been healthier: UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina and Duke are all legit contenders, and will get plenty of respect come March. But anyone serious about winning their bracket pool knows that the real money is made by knowing the small-conference teams seeded 11-14, and not being caught of guard when one of them pulls off a big upset. So, in the interest of fleecing your friends or co-workers next month, I give you, in no particular order, five mid-major teams to start watching in advance of March Madness.
(this list excludes Tournament regulars Gonzaga, VCU and Wichita State, who are all legit and deserve your attention as well)
1. UNC-Wilmington (21-4, 10-2 CAA)
The Seahawks have slipped a bit as of late, losing 2 of 3 in CAA play, but still check in as a 12- seed in Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology. At 86.6 points per game (good for 11th in the country), UNCW has the shooters to play with just about anyone. Against Delaware Saturday, they went 21-32 from beyond the arc, tying a Colonial record. If the Seahawks get that hot in March, watch out.
2. Middle Tennessee State (20-4, 10-1 CUSA)
Fool me once, shame on you. The Blue Raiders busted my bracket by taking down Michigan State in the first round last year in an epic 2 vs. 15 upset. Don’t be surprised to see the team with a much better seed this time around (Lunardi has them at 11 currently). MTSU allows 63.4 points per game, 22nd best in the nation. If you need convincing that good defense beats good offense, the Blue Raiders held the aforementioned Seahawks to 63 points in an early-season win.
3. New Mexico State (22-2, 8-0 WAC)
The nation’s second-longest winning streak (behind undefeated Gonzaga) currently belongs to the New Mexico State Aggies. After starting 2-2, NMSU has rattled off 20 straight wins, one shy of a program record. Their non-conference schedule was nothing special, and the WAC is not a deep league. But the Aggies’ next two games come on the road against the teams breathing down their neck in the WAC standings (CSU-Bakersfield and Grand Canyon).
4. Vermont (20-5, 10-0 America East)
The Catamounts came into the season as the favorite in the America East, and have not disappointed. Lunardi has Vermont as a 12 seed, matching up with Purdue in the East region. Go ahead and take my money now if we can get that matchup. UVM plays great defense (63.7 PPG), but perhaps most impressive is their balance. 11 guys average 10+ minutes per game, and their leading scorer is Peyton Henson at just 11.1 PPG. A bench this deep bodes well for the grind of the final months.
5. Illinois State (19-5, 11-1 MVC)
Another one of Lunardi’s 12 seeds, the Redbirds fell hard on the road against Wichita State Saturday for their first conference loss. But they beat the Shockers handedly at home earlier in the year, and the two teams are far and above the rest of the Missouri Valley. I don’t see them possibly losing until a rubber match with WSU in the conference tournament. ISU allows just 62.6 points per game, 14th best in the country (noticing a trend here?)
Honorable mention: Nevada (18-5, 7-3 Mountain West), Rhode Island (15-9, 7-3 A10), Dayton (17-5, 8-2 A10), Valparaiso (19-5, 9-2 Horizon), Akron (19-4, 9-1 MAC)