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NFL Preseason is officially upon us! For the next 3 weeks, we will see new faces, splash plays and, mostly, rust being shaken off. All 32 teams have a short amount of time to figure out who will make their final regular season roster. When the preseason is over, we will better understand which teams are truly ready for this 17 game season.
What is important for a sports bettor is to ignore the hype and listen to the analysis. NFL season win totals can be difficult because there is so much that can happen before the season starts. With uncertainty comes opportunity and if the line is right, money can be made. Here are 5 teams where their is value in making a profit this season in the win totals department.
Arizona Cardinals- Over 8.5 (-130)
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After finishing 8-8 in 2020, the Arizona Cardinals have a lot to prove to the league and betting public. With superstar QB Kyler Murray at the helm, you can expect another banner offensive year in the desert. Getting help opposite Deandre Hopkins, Arizona signed former Bengal A.J. Green to serve as an offensive and leadership presence in the locker room. To further split time in the backfield, James Connor was signed to take the place of Kenyan Drake and relieve some of the burden off electric scat back Chase Edmunds. Pro Bowl Center Rodney Hudson inked a deal to sure up the offensive line for Murray to lead the pack.
The defense was not forgotten about, however, as Arizona addressed the issue in the draft and Free Agency. With Patrick Peterson, the heartbeat of the defense for many years, gone, their secondary was a question. In comes Malcolm Butler to slide into the spot, with Budda Baker to take over the reins in the secondary. Another big signing was J.J. Watt to start opposite Chandler Jones to put pressure on the opposing QB and I believe Watt has enough in the tank to help them to a potential Super Bowl run.
One of the road blocks in the way of their season is the division itself. With San Fran healthy and Seattle always tough, the NFC West is wide open this year. A split in the division would be enough to set them up for a W in this bet. With a mid-tier strength of schedule (SOS) and a variety of new veteran additions to help guide this young team, the Cards have a great chance hitting the over at 8.5 and contend for a Division title.
Atlanta Falcons- Under 7.5 (+100)
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I see great value in this bet, since I can’t see how Atlanta is getting money to go under here. Granted, they drafted a dynamic TE in Kyle Pitts, but that doesn’t change the fact that they lost Julio Jones who practically wrote the book on how to run a route in Atlanta. I do believe Mike Davis coming in to start is an upgrade from the Todd Gurley experiment, but he has no history of taking the reins as a bell cow before last year, where he averaged less than 4 YPC.
Adding to the mix is first year HC Arthur Smith who had success as OC in Tennessee. But generally a rebuild is in order for the first year of a HC. In Atlanta’s favor, however, is their SOS as Atlanta has the 3rd easiest schedule this year with a combined 45.4%. If Kyle Pitts and Russell Gage can step up and support Calvin Ridley, who finished with 1374 yards and 9 TD’s, this offense could take a step forward. But the problem was never the offense, but the defense, who finished 29th in yards allowed in 2020, and the worst rated pass defense in the league.
There will be a lot of questions around the Atlanta Falcons this season. Can the defense step up from out of the cellar? Will Calvin Ridley be “The Guy”? Can Arthur Smith can find instant success in his first season as HC with a 36 year old Matt Ryan? My bet is on no. Terry Fontenot, the new GM, has a bright future but I don’t believe success starts this year. Put my money on the under.
Denver Broncos- Under 8.5 (-120)
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Bridgewater or Lock? That will be the season long question this year in Denver. The Broncos signed Teddy from Carolina to hopefully bring a more efficient approach under center from Drew’s erratic QB play (29th in QBR in 2020). Denver’s last 4 years have been anything but successful as they have won 5,6,7 and 5 games. It is put up or shut up time for HC Vic Fangio, as this is the year that he needs to at least show signs that the team is moving in the right direction.
In Denver’s favor, they are returning a ton of their most talented players last year, who missed the season. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will sure up the defensive side of the ball, while Courtland Sutton will start opposite Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. Adding support to the backfield is 2nd round rookie Javonte Williams, who takes the place of Phillip Lindsay. With a healthy roster and great homefield advantage, Denver does have a chance at beating their projected total.
The obstacles in Denver’s way could be the very same thing in their favor. They have a history of star players going out with injury and on top of that are in a very competitive division. They do have the 5th easiest SOS (47%), but they do face 8 teams that won at least 10 games in 2020. Giving the tough division and unsure QB play, I’m confident it will be close, but the under will be the play.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Over 8.5 (+100)
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I had to look twice at this line because I was highly surprised I was getting plus money for just a winning record. The Steelers haven’t finished with less than 8 wins since 2003 and this year should be no different. After finishing 12-4 in 2020 and 12th in PPG, I have no reason to believe they have a 4 game drop off. Reports of Big Ben coming into training camp looking better than he did his rookie year have helped hammer this point.
Taking out an ineffective and injury prone James Connor for 3-down back Najee Harris was a huge upgrade. Another season of reps and routes for JuJu and Chase Claypool helps make my money sleep better at night. Ben actually took a pay cut this year to keep the team together, so you know he is motivated to win one more before he hangs them up.
I can see the concern, however, why their are some skeptics of this team. The offensive line is shifting in 4 new starters, which is no easy task. On top of that, the AFC North is absolutely treacherous, with 3 teams winning at least 11 games in 2020. But if there is one thing Pittsburgh and Mike Tomlin does, is wins games. Sometimes, you have to just trust the process and hold your feet to the fire. I’m diving in and saying the over will hit this season.
My Bet From The Bayou- Carolina Panthers- Over 7.5 (-125)
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I got to say, there is a lot to love about this team this year. Second year HC Matt Rhule, along with OC Joe Brady are brewing something quite delicious in the NFC South. Unshackled from the incompetent chains of Adam Gase, Sam Darnold finally gets to showcase why he was the 3rd overall pick in the 2018 draft. To help Darnold, there is no shortage of weapons at his disposal this season.
Not only is Robby Anderson there, who Darnold already has chemistry with, but DJ Moore is back from injury. To ease the transition, they drafted 2nd round WR Terrance Marshall Jr. who insiders have been raving about all season. Oh yea lets not forget who’s back, but possibly the most important piece of all: Christian McCaffrey. It’s safe to say this should be the year we find out if Darnold was the guy we all expected him to be, and I believe he will fit the bill.
With a young, but talented defense who showed flashes of promise last season, I can see a lot of turnovers that can result in points. Derrick Brown and Jeremy Chinn exploded on the scene as rookies last year. Suring up the secondary is Deonte Jackson and Top 10 pick Jaycee Horn. Another great addition in FA was Hassan Reddick, who produced 13 sacks in 2020.
With the uncertainty in the NFC South, outside of Tampa Bay and a mid tier level SOS, the stars can align in Carolina. This is my favorite pick and I am all over Carolina this year to beat their team total.
A Little Lagniappe
Sam Darnold was light years better in New York with Robby Anderson in the lineup. Darnold averaged 6.9 YPA with RA, vs 6.0 without him, and 229 YPG, vs 181 without.
So if you sign up with BUSR, who is offering a 500$ Welcome Bonus, Carolina could fill your pockets!
