Every year, we see young players burst onto the scene and make a name for themselves at the major league level. As we approach the 2021 MLB campaign, let’s take a look at five potential candidates to break out in the upcoming season.
Tejay Antone (RHP, Cincinnati Reds)
Tejay Antone exploded onto the scene in Cincinnati last season. In 13 appearances (4 starts), Antone recorded a 2.80 ERA and an ERA+ of 171. He became extremely valuable as a pitcher who was more than capable of eating innings, either in relief or as a starter. He was dominant when working out of the bullpen, posting a 1.89 ERA in relief.
His profile on Baseball Savant is nothing sort of spectacular, as well. Take a look for yourself:
The expected batting average is one that particularly stands out. Antone’s xBA was just .169, and he generates a ton of called strikes.
Antone throws four pitches (sinker, slider, curveball, changeup), but the sinker/slider combo account for 80.4% of all pitches he threw last season (Stats from Baseball Savant).His slider is particularly deadly, and it breaks late, which bodes well when it comes to deceiving hitters.
Devin Williams was the best reliever in the NL Central last season, by far. However, don’t be surprised if Antone joins him as one of the premiere bullpen arms in the division during the 2021 campaign.
Luis Urias (IF, Milwaukee Brewers)
Luis Urias was supposed to be a breakout candidate for the 2020 season. However, he became an extreme victim of circumstance. Urias missed nearly all of Spring Training with a broken hand. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to more of his misfortune, shutting down the league temporarily right as he was getting set to return to the field.
The bad luck didn’t stop there. When the MLB finally did resume, Urias was unable to join the team thanks to a positive COVID test. Because of this, he didn’t make his season debut until August 10. He never quite got going at the plate, batting just .239 with a .602 OPS. However, he showed flashes of what the Brewers believe he is capable of, posting a slashline of .298/.365/.373 in his first 15 games.
In a full season, Urias will finally get a chance to establish himself at the plate. 2021 could be the year that the defensive wiz realizes his potential offensively.
Sean Murphy (C, Oakland Athletics)
Sean Murphy became the A’s starting catcher in 2020, and seems poised to improve even more in 2021. He slashed .233/.364/.457 in 43 games, with 7 home runs and an .821 OPS. While the batting average may not jump off the page, his underlying numbers show that Murphy is capable of much more.
He had a barrel percentage in the 83rd percentile during his rookie campaign. Murphy was also in the 91st percentile in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage (Numbers courtesy of Baseball Savant). He also showed off an elite eye in the box, drawing 24 walks in 140 plate appearances (17.1% walk rate).
Murphy finished 4th in AL Rookie of the Year voting, and will be Oakland’s starting catcher heading into the season. Expect to see him take another step forward, in what will be his first full season as a starter.
Casey Mize (RHP, Detroit Tigers)
Casey Mize broke onto the scene last year, and it didn’t exactly go well. The #1 pick in 2018 recorded a 6.99 ERA in 28.1 innings. However, the quality of his stuff is unquestionable. His best pitch, a splitter, is devastating (28% whiff percentage, according to Baseball Savant), and he generated misses at an even higher rate with his curveball.
Mize’s splitter drops an average of 5.3 inches, also according to Baseball Savant. He also features a plus-graded slider, to go with a fastball topping out at 96. As he develops his secondary pitches, Mize will only continue to improve. He’s currently ranked as Detroit’s #2 prospect, and has a legitimate chance to make the Tigers’ rotation out of Spring Training.
In order to have a better season, Mize will need to attack the zone a bit more often. His 4-seam fastball was surprisingly effective, so we may see him pound the zone with that pitch a bit more in 2021.
As long as Mize progresses as he should, he could be poised for a big year.
Deivi Garcia (RHP, New York Yankees)
The questions surrounding the Yankees’ starting rotation have been well-documented to this point. After Gerrit Cole and Corey Kluber, there’s three open spots for the taking (two when Luis Severino returns at midseason). Deivi Garcia will likely take one of these spots, making him a prime candidate for a 2021 breakout.
Garcia made his debut in the show last season, and showed flashes of brilliance. He struggled with consistency, however, and finished the year with a 4.98 ERA. However, his FIP (fielding-independent pitching) was noticeably better, at 4.15.
Despite his struggles, Garcia showcased terrific command, with a walk rate in the 94th percentile. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (averaging 91.9 mph), but he has above-average movement on the pitch, which helps his deception.
Garcia throws three offspeed pitches (changeup, curveball, slider) that are all fully capable of generating swings and misses at the major league level. He had a whiff rate of at least 28.8% on all three pitches, and it was as high as 40% on his slider (although it’s worth noting he only threw the pitch 48 times last year).
Garcia will likely be one of the Yankees’ starters as the 2021 season begins, giving him a perfect opportunity to prove his worth.