Folks, the time is here! This month we start the once a week extravaganza of NCAA and NFL football from now until Super Bowl 56.
With the arrival of football season comes an opportunity that many people take to make some extra income off of sports wagering. Unfortunately, most people fail at this endeavor due to a variety of reasons. Lack of knowledge, research, discipline and poor money management are some of the factors that separate the Pros from the Joes. As a fellow football lover and sports bettor, I have learned over the years that in order to win long term at this game (I’m still working on getting there as well) these tips can help sharpen your edge at turning a profit and keeping a profit this upcoming football season.
Establishing and Managing Your Bankroll
The most important thing that I have learned in this business is to never wager more than you can afford. Most beginners see a “lock” and go all in and when it doesn’t pan out, their left regretting their decision. This is why we establish a bankroll, or an amount of money you allot yourself to wager, based on unit size. Unit size wagering is an amount of money that’s placed on an individual bet. The most well known form of unit size wagering used by many professional handicappers is the 1%-5% unit system.
This method is based on the percentage of your bankroll you bet, based on your confidence of the play. The wagers that you feel most confident about after doing your research and analysis, you would wager 5%. If your bankroll is $1000, a 1% play would be $10, where as a 5% play would be $50. This helps to establish bankroll management to give you a large sample size of games to determine your skillset. Bankroll Management helps you weather the storm of a losing streak by minimizing losses, while making you money over time. Attached below is a great video from the Wagertalk team on how to separate and manage your bankrolls among each category and sport.
Learn Your Bets
Another way to make a profit sports betting is to learn the different kinds of bets books have to offer. Sure, seeing that 8 leg parlay payout looks amazing, but the chances of it happening are slim to none. So lets dive into the plays that have the best statistical percentage of making you money.
Moneyline Bets: The most basic bet of all, this is a bet where you pick the team to win the contest outright. If a team is favored to win a contest and the line is -200, that means you would have to risk $200 to win $100. If a team is not favored to win and their line is +200, that means you would win $200 for a $100 bet. This is the easiest form of betting because you are just betting on who will win the contest.
Point Spread: This is a bet on whether you think a team will win or lose a game by a specified number of points. If a team is expected to win, they will be given a line such as -3, meaning they must win the contest by more than 3 points to beat the spread. If a team is expected to lose, they could be given a line such as +3, meaning they can lose the game and still win the bet, as long as they lose by less than 3. Whether a team is “laying” points (favored) or “getting” points (underdog), these bets can be valuable since you do not need a team to win a game, just cover a number.
Over/Under: This is a bet where you decide if a contest’s score will go over or under the assigned game total. If a football game’s over/under is 48, you decide whether you want the score to go under, meaning 47 or lower, or over, meaning 49 or higher. This bet is very simple and profitable because things like injuries and weather can play a major factor in determining what side to bet on an Over/Under play.
Teaser: A teaser is a bet that allows you to move the spreads or totals of games in your favor. The only catch is you must bet them like a parlay, meaning more than one bet must be placed and hit to win that wager. For example: Saints -9, Panthers +9: O/U- 48: In a 6 point teaser, you can take the Saints down from -9 to -3 favorites and the Over down from 48 to 42. In order to win this bet, both sides must hit their desired lines, if only one hits, you lose your wager. (Sharp Side Note: Know your “key numbers:” 3 and 7 are key numbers in football because a lot of games can be decided by a field goal or touchdown.)
You can find all of these types of bets and more on BUSR.com! Click here to get started today!
Finding Value
This part of the article could be an entire article in itself. I think it’s important to go over some basic but pivotal points to move the line in your direction. Value doesn’t have to be just power rankings and models, value can be found in a variety of ways. Focus on a sport you already have a passion for. Focusing your analysis and attention on one sport can help you achieve a higher success rate.
Research sounds like the most obvious way to find value, but it needs to be done. Without research, you’re basically leaving your bet up to a coin toss, therefore, lighting your money on fire. In order to do the research, you have to put in the time and work. Rosters, coaching staff, schedules and schemes for each team require research to sharpen your knowledge and edge on the game. Other information like injury reports and weather can come into play at a moments notice. It’s always best to keep up to date daily on any information that pertains to the teams in your bet. (Sharp Side Note: Check in with local news outlets, along with national news outlets; sometimes you can find hidden nuggets such as injuries or roster moves that the betting public may not know!)
Also, be sure to compare odd’s from multiple sources, as you may find an edge somewhere in those numbers. I always find that BUSR tends to offer the lines with the best value!
Don’t Chase!
Sports betting can be a cruel game. You will have the highest of highs and the lowest of lows. The best thing you can do is maintain a level head while riding the wager wave. It can be very easy to get down on yourself after a losing streak and want to get even.
When your not seeing things clearly, take a break. Go back to the drawing board and turn your frustration into motivation to handicap another game. Do not stray away from your BRM, stick to the system and be patient. (Sharp Side Note: Successful handicappers usually have a 55% win percentage, the best have around 60%.)
Bet With Your Brain, Not Your Heart
Just because the New Orleans Saints are my favorite team, doesn’t mean I am going to bet them blind. It’s best to put aside your personal bias against other teams and handicap with a clear head and blank slate. Trust the research in to handicapping a game because the statistics matter in finding value and making money.
Avoid “Bettors Fallacy” or the “Due Factor”. Just because an outcome happened multiple times before, does not mean it cant happen again. Each contest is its own individual happening. Trends and angles can show you previous patterns, but basing outcomes solely off prior outcomes will never work long term.
A Little Lagniappe
Lastly, the most important thing you should do is HAVE FUN! Sports betting, when done right, can be the most exciting and fun way to make money. I believe with these tips, you will be able to see great results and establish great habits. Remember everybody, sports betting is not a sprint, it’s a marathon. Good luck to everyone this coming football season and let’s get this money!
