Record: 2-6

Jaelan Phillips Over 0.25 Sacks +195

While the year isn’t off to a hot start for my props, it’s still extremely early. We’re 1-1 on our sack props and tonight feels like that number movies to 2-1. I am betting Jaelan Phillips over 0.25 sacks +195. Phillips had 1 sack last week vs Jacksonville and in 2023, he didn’t face off vs either Buffalo tackle, Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins, due to injury. In 2022, he had 1.5 sacks vs the Bills over three games. Miami’s defense is loaded with pass rushers like Campbell, Robinson and Ogbah, but the leader of that pack is Jaelan Phillips, who will sack Josh Allen tonight.

Dalton Kincaid Over 43.5 Receiving Yards -120

Much like myself, Dalton Kincaid started the 2024 season off to a slow start. He only nabbed 1 catch for 11 yards and was only targeted twice vs Arizona. Pushing that aside, we’re taking Dalton Kincaid over 43.5 receiving yards -120. In 2023, Kincaid had 9 games over 43.5 receiving yards and averaged 5.6 targets per game. One of those games he went for over 43.5 receiving yards was against Miami as well, which makes me like this bet a whole lot more. As for the Dolphins, they matched up nicely vs Evan Engram, but he’s not as physical and crafty as Kincaid.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -140

It’s confirmed that Raheem Mostert is out and Devon Achane is questionable, so the run game feels like it’ll be a non factor for Tua and company on offense. That means that the pass game has to and will be firing early and often. In week one vs Jacksonville, Tua had 1 passing touchdown, but I like his matchup vs Buffalo’s secondary. They played okay vs a lesser QB in Kyler Murray, but Arizona doesn’t have the weapons like Miami does. Hammer Tua Tagovailoa over 1.5 passing touchdowns -140.

Tua Tagovailoa Over 34.5 Passing Attempts +105

That’s right, we’re doubling up on Tua tonight. We’re taking Tua Tagovailoa over 34.5 passing attempts +105 for the same reason that we took his passing touchdown over. It’s because of their running back depth going into this game. He had 37 attempts last week and in 2023, he seven games over 34.5 to go with an average of 33.2 attempts per game. While his attempts per game from 2023 is lower than 34.5, this was when they had a fully healthy running back room. Without that, McDaniel is going to get craft early and often with the pass game and I’m here for it.