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A flawed field: ten teams that can win the NCAA Tournament

PJ Guippone

March is fantastic. It starts to heat up in the northern part of the country, the birds return to their homes in the skies, and college basketball reigns supreme. From the very beginning of the college basketball season, there is one goal, March Madness. Starting with the preseason tournaments in early December, every analyst and reporter asks one thing: who will rule in March? Coming down the stretch of the season and entering conference tournaments, this season has a much clearer group of frontrunners. I narrowed it down to ten teams. The intrigue in the field this year, though, is that each team has one major gaping flaw that could hurt them if they meet a team that can exploit that weakness. These are the ten that can stand alone at the end of the greatest tournament in American Sports in my own ranked order.

  1. Kansas, 2. Villanova

Kansas and Villanova are the only two teams in the country that appear to be clear front runners. These two teams have everything that is essential in the NCAA tournament. They have elite college point guards in Wooden Award Finalist Frank Mason III and Jalen Brunson, respectively. They both have absolute superstars on the Wing in Josh Jackson and Josh Hart, respectively. Each team plays fantastic defense, is efficient on offense, and has a guy that can take the last shot (Kansas: your pick, but probably Mason, and Nova: if you don’t know this we have a problem, and I guess you missed the best championship game in the history of the NCAA). They both struggle on the same front, though, and that is frontcourt depth. Kansas only has one big man averaging more than fifteen minutes per game, Landen Lucas, who is great at what he does, defending and rebounding. Outside of that, they have Carlton Bragg Jr., who has never come anywhere close to the hype that preceded him when he committed to Kansas last year as a Freshman, and Udoka Azubuike, who isn’t a productive player in any sense of the word. For the Wildcats, the only player taller than 6’9”, Freshman Dylan Painter, is averaging less than five minutes per game. The addition of 6’7” forward Eric Paschall from Fordham to the Darryl Reynolds and Kris Jenkins frontcourt helped, but the loss of five-star center recruit Omari Spellman to NCAA violations and injury did not. Luckily, they have one of the best rebounding guards in the country in Josh Hart, but there is still glaring inadequacies in their front court depth.

 

  1. Gonzaga

Gonzaga is really, really, really good. Now I know that when I say that, there are a bunch of people reading this that will say, “Who cares? They play in the West Coast Conference. My weekday pick-up squad could beat San Diego.” That’s fair, I’m not going to disagree with that. I think the same thing honestly. But you should still take this team seriously. Their frontcourt is probably the best in the country with three seven-footers including wrecking-ball Przemek Karnowski and freakish athlete on both ends Zach Collins. They have one of the deepest backcourts Mark Few has ever had, featuring Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss. Also, this is one of the best schedules Gonzaga has played since they have been nationally relevant. They have four top-25 wins including the talented Arizona Wildcats (who you will see a little later on the list) and two in conference against the St. Mary’s Gaels. Those wins do not include a victory against Florida, who was unranked at the time. Take the Zags seriously.

 

  1. UCLA

This team is the closest thing to a supernova we will ever see on Earth. There aren’t’ many teams that have seemed this unstoppable on offense from a power conference. It seems like whenever they want a basket, they can get it from almost anyone on the floor. Whether it be the explosive playmaker Lonzo Ball, magician from beyond the arc Bryce Alford, or freshman forward who can seemingly do everything, T.J. Leaf. They have six guys averaging over ten points per game. If you want a full write-up of how freakishly good they actually are, refer to my article “UCLA by the numbers” (shameless self-plug). But they have stretches on the defensive end where they look like they are blind and/or children just learning how to play defense. Their rotations are subpar, their on-ball ability is shaky depending on the player, but their ability on offense has saved the Bruins all season. We shall see if that can hold true against the stronger competition in March.

 

  1. Oregon

The Ducks are unstoppable at home. Lurking in the trees (actually just designs in the hard wood), they pop out from almost everywhere on the court and show an absolutely elite scoring offense. Led by Dillon Brooks, this team is capable of high-efficiency offense due to weapons all over the floor like Brooks’ backcourt running mates Tyler Dorsey and Dylan Ennis, and frontcourt freaks of nature Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell. Although Brooks is a blessing, their dependence on him is a curse. Blame it on the beginning of the season if you want, but beginning the season without Brooks for three games and then having him at about 70% for another four was not ideal, and the stretch showed the Ducks’ dependency on the Canadian dead-eye. In those seven games, Baylor went 5-2 including a loss to Georgetown and near escapes against Tennessee and Boise State, none of which being especially shining results. The Ducks may be an 18-wheeler with no breaks on the offensive end when they are rolling, but Dillon Brooks is both the engine and the gas pedal.

 

  1. UNC

While we’re talking about elite offensive teams, I might as well bring up the North Carolina Tar Heels. Yes, of course they are still one of the best teams in the country. They are seventh in the country in points per game, and they have done it against everyone, including 100 points in both a win against Oklahoma state and a loss to Kentucky. Their flaw, like the two teams on the top of this list, comes from their roster. The depth in the backcourt is abysmal. It appears as if Roy Williams has begun to reload it for next year, but there are only three guards averaging more than ten minutes per game. When the bigger guys on a roster are elite athletes like Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks is backcourt depth really a huge issue? Only time will tell, but with guard play being so important in the tournament, it seems like a fatal flaw.

 

  1. Arizona

After a shaky beginning of the season, the Wildcats have gone 21-2 since December 6 to establish themselves as one of the best teams in the country. Led by five-star recruits from the 2016 class Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons and Lauri Markkanen, this team is yet another dynamic offensive force from the Pac-12. This team plays together on offense and are only allowing opposing teams to 64 points per game, good for top thirty in the nation. The problem with this team is a big one come March, though, and why Duke didn’t make the list at all: they have no true point guard. Look at dark-horse teams that won national championships, most notably the 2011 and 2014 Uconn teams. They were led by Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier, respectively. Good, dynamic, steady, pure point guards who were trusted with the ball in their hands. Arizona does not have that. Simmons is a fantastic player, but he is not a true point guard. This will not be a promising flaw for the Cats come March.

 

  1. Florida St.

Watching the Seminoles ball this year has really been a treat. Like many other teams on this list, they are dynamic offensively, but the way they score is just… different. They have the largest average height in the nation, and they are loaded with NBA-caliber athletes. Jonathan Isaac has the feel of a (dare I say it) Kevin Durant on both ends of the floor. Dwayne Bacon is an absolute beast in every sense of the word, absolutely punishing softer players on the inside. The man known as XRM is an explosive guard that can do everything except for shoot a free throw. But for some reason, this team is a borderline dumpster fire on the road. Entering conference play, the Noles were 12-1. Since then, they are 12-6. All six of those losses are not in their home arena. Disregarding the outlier of the win at UVA, which I am disregarding because it doesn’t make any sense, they are 2-5 on the road in conference play. Considering it’s impossible to bring your home floor to the tournament on the team bus, this doesn’t bode particularly well for the Noles in March.

 

  1. Kentucky

This is probably the best recruiting class that Cal has ever gotten to go to Lexington. Will it prove to be with the pros it produces? Probably not. No one in this class is Boogie or AD, and De’Aaron Fox is not John Wall, but they still have elite athletes everywhere on the floor. When Fox is healthy, they have good depth in the backcourt, and their depth in the frontcourt is among the best in the country. Despite this, they have been massively inconsistent on both sides of the ball. Sometimes it happens when they rely too much on Malik Monk to turn into the Human Torch, but more often it is on the defensive end where they are in the bottom third of the nation. Look at their schedule for the year and you will see more than one curiosity. Like when they followed up a great win over ranked South Carolina with a lame loss to 11-9 Tennessee. Or how about following up a ninety-point showing against Georgia with a pathetic 66 point showing against a surprisingly good Gators team. It’s just hard to know which Kentucky is going to step on the court on any given night.

 

  1. Notre Dame

There is no substitute for veteran leadership, and this team has the most of it. There are only three Freshman on this roster, and  only Temple Gibbs can hold claim to log more than 5 minutes per game. They have four guys with more than fourteen points per game, including 6’5” Junior Center (yes, a 6’5” center) Bonzie Colson, Junior Point Guard Matt Farrell (who is in my personal top-5 point guards in the country), and Seniors V.J. Beachem and Steve Vasturia. This is a list of stats that hold a lot of value in March. All that not even mentioning Mike Brey, who has a fantastic tournament resume, including back-to-back Elite 8 appearances. There is one problem with this team that seems to be a problem we talk about every year with some teams this time of the college season: dependence on the three ball. The Fighting Irish attempt nearly 41% of their shots from beyond the arc. While they are making almost 40%, this becomes a problem this time of year because teams will try to work on running them off the line. If they get in the lane and get to the line, this team can beat anyone with their team 82% free throw percentage, that just isn’t their game, though.

 

Honorable Mentions.

 

Notable omissions: Duke Blue Devils, Butler Bulldogs, West Virginia Mountaineers

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