Is 2021 the lowest point in ACC basketball history?
Just one day into the round of 64, the Atlantic Coast Conference has gone from 7 teams in the dance, already down to 3. With Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina all losing in the first round, Syracuse was the only team able to stay alive on Friday. While Virginia and Florida State have yet to play, with both teams being 4 seeds in the tournament and unlikely to plow through their regions to a potential final four bid, this begs the question, is 2021 the worst the ACC has ever looked?
The Atlantic Coast Conference has produced some of the greatest teams in NCAA basketball history and in the last 20 years, the ACC takes credit for eight national championships. This is more than any other conference in college basketball. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have been power-houses in college basketball… Now fast forward to 2021. For the first time this century an ACC team is not seeded as a #2 seed or better in March Madness. Not only that, but not a single ACC team could even manage better than the #4 seeding of Virginia and Florida State for the Big Dance.
The season started out as many ACC seasons do, with four teams ranked in the pre-season top 25 (#4 Virginia, #9 Duke, #16 North Carolina, and #21 Florida State) along with many other teams expected to be competitive. What was not expected was that Florida State would somehow emerge as the most consistent team in the conference for much of the year. That is until they dropped three of their last six games, including an inexcusable loss to Notre Dame (7-11, 11-15) to fall out the 2-3 seed conversation for March Madness. Many would argue that they actually overachieved, making the fact that they were considered the best team in the ACC even more puzzling. What on earth happened to the three power-houses this season?
The Dreadful Duke Blue Devils:
Duke struggled from the get-go both with getting wins, as well as simply trying to play games. In the month of December, Duke only played in four games total due to COVID concerns. Even when they did finally get back on schedule, this inept Blue Devils team lost as many games as they won, and also lost freshman and projected lottery pick, Jalen Johnson, along the way. Johnson’s play was up and down until he injured his foot just a couple of weeks into the season. After coming back from injury he was eventually benched for a stretch of games, played limited minutes, and promptly opted out the rest of the season to prepare for the NBA draft. While Matthew Hurt and DJ Steward both showed promise at times, the most memorable things about this season will be coach Mike Krzyzewski berating a student reporter for his perfectly reasonable question following a loss to Louisville and Duke missing the tournament for the first time since 1995.
The Unfortunate UNC Tar Heels:
North Carolina was not nearly as bad or dysfunctional as their local rival, but that did not stop them from absolutely disappointing Tar Heel and college basketball fans this season. While they beat up on the below average and bad teams that they faced (finishing the season 15-1 against QUAD2, QUAD3, and QUAD4 opponents), over the course of the first 90% of the season they were 1-9 against QUAD1 opponents. Basically, They were the epitome of mediocre and would beat everyone worse than them but could not hang with higher ranking teams. There was a point in this season in late January where many analysts were anticipating the Tar Heels to also miss March Madness. However, UNC did end up salvaging the season with ACC tournament wins over Virginia Tech and Florida State to improve their resume enough to lock down an #8 seed in the tournament. Even then, an #8 seed seemed generous and #9 seeded Wisconsin beat down the Tar Heels 85-62 in round one.
The Confusing Cavaliers of Virginia:
The Cavaliers had a roller-coaster of a season in which they were ranked as the #4 team in the country before the season began, dropped nearly out of the rankings to #23 seven weeks later, and then rose all the way back to the #7 ranked team towards the end of the season, only to fall once again to barely hold onto a #4 seed for March Madness. COVID definitely played a role in their wacky season, as they had 5 games postponed or cancelled, however it still does not explain some of the perplexing losses they have had. Most notably, Virginia lost to San Francisco (11-14) at home, needed overtime to beat Kent State (15-8) at home, and lost to NC State (14-10) at home. They were also only 1-3 against ranked teams this season, and were blown out 98-75 by Gonzaga, blown out 81-60 by Florida State and lost convincingly 65-51 against Virginia Tech in those three losses. The model for this Virginia team was the same as Virginia teams of the past who were successful and advanced numbers tell me that they are still a solid team with a great coach, but the eye test shows me that this season they were simply a shell of themselves. We will see how they fare against #13 seed Ohio.
What it all means:
I think it is safe to say that this is the worst season for ACC Basketball in the 21st Century. This year has been all about the Big 10 and Big 12 and the ACC has rightfully taken a back seat. With that being said, I am certain that the ACC will have a bounce back year next season as Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State have all already signed two or three ESPN Top 100 recruits for next season and the top half of the ACC showcases some of the best coaches in basketball today. Regardless, this was definitely a season to forget for the Atlantic Coast Conference.