2020 has brought about the most unique sports calendar ever. We’ve seen an NBA Bubble, a shortened and wildly changing college football season, and an NFL campaign that is constantly adjusting to our current situation. There’s also been a fan-less PGA Tour restart that leads to the strangest of looks–a November edition of The Masters. The 84th Masters will be completely different. There won’t be hoards of patrons patrolling the grounds, there won’t be the classic Masters roars, and there won’t be the usual buzz in the air around traditionally buzzy holes (12 and 16 come to mind). What doesn’t change, however, is the collection of the greatest players in the world battling it out for the most desired item of clothing in sports: the green jacket. Tiger Woods’ miraculous return to Butler Cabin in 2019 was one of the best moments in golf history. Will we see something similar in this fall rendition of a tradition unlike any other? If so, here are the names to watch on the leaderboard as the tournament progresses.
Power Ranking the Contenders
1. Dustin Johnson
The hottest player in the world is seemingly under-the-radar this weekend. He isn’t the Vegas favorite, and there hasn’t been a lot of buzz amongst experts in tournament picks. Why? I don’t get it. In his last six events, Johnson’s worst finish is a T6. In five of those events, he has either won or finished runner-up. Johnson is 11th in strokes gained: off the tee, 6th in strokes gained: approach the green, and 2nd in strokes gained: tee-to-green. He’s also the number one player in the world, and he’s got course history too. In his last four trips to Augusta, DJ’s worst finish is T10, and he finished tied for second in 2019. He’s the best player in the field and the best bet to win.
2. Jon Rahm
It’s time for Rahm to win a major. Coming off a T2 at the ZOZO, the second ranked player in the world is trying to build on a career-best season in 2020. He’s won on some of the toughest courses in the world, and he’s got the ball-striking ability to take this tournament. The temperament question will always follow him, but he does have two straight top tens at Augusta. If the putter can get going (currently he’s 147th in strokes gained: putting), then he will be tough to stop.
3. Bryson DeChambeau
The body transformation was made specifically for the Masters, it just so happened to net DeChambeau a dominant U.S. Open in the process. His length will turn some of the par-5 holes into par-4 chances, but it’s his touch around the green that keeps him at third on this list. In the 2020 season, he was 111th in strokes gained: around the green. Those stats have improved in his two events this season, but will he be as sharp with the wedges as he needs to be in order to win? That’s the main question, as he looks to build on what’s been a somewhat disappointing career at Augusta (best finish: T21 in 2016).
4. Rory McIlroy
Can Rory complete the career grand slam? McIlroy hasn’t won an event since November of 2019, but he’s had success in this time of year. He’s also finished in the Top 25 of every Masters since 2013, with five Top 5 finishes sprinkled in. With a T8-T21-T17 run entering Augusta, it might be time for the Northern Ireland native to finish the job at the place where he’s had so many chances to win. If he can avoid the big numbers and hone in his irons, McIlroy can take the green jacket.
5. Brooks Koepka
Welcome back, Brooks! After a 2020 season filled with strange results and injury issues, Koepka is ready to take on Augusta National. He enters on the heels of a T5 at the Houston Open, and he tied for second in this event last time out. If he truly is fully healthy, you can’t rule him out. That being said, based on the data, if his Major track record wasn’t as strong, he wouldn’t be this high on the board.
6. Xander Schauffle
Schauffle is another guy in the “why hasn’t he won a Major?” category. He’s certainly been close (six top ten finishes in his last nine Majors), and he’s another one that finished T2 last time at Augusta. Xander’s one of the steadiest putters and purest ball-strikers on the tour, and he enters with two runner-up finishes in his last four events. He’s going to get a Major at some point, and many say that Augusta fits his style nicely. Is it his time?
7. Patrick Cantlay
He’s taken time off since his win at the ZOZO, and he checks all the boxes statistically. The main issue is a mixed career at Augusta. In 2019, Cantlay tied for ninth. In 2018, he missed the cut. He can be somewhat volatile at major championships, but his game is at a place where you certainly cannot count him out.
8. Justin Thomas
He’s the best iron and wedge player in the world, but his putter has held him back from more victories. It’s been three years since his only major win, so maybe it’s time for Thomas to get back in the winner’s circle. He’ll need to combat a somewhat disappointing career at the Masters (no top tens in four appearances), but his results have been trending up each and every year. Enters also after a T2 at the ZOZO, and Thomas hasn’t finished outside the top 12 of an event since August.
9. Tony Finau
Can Tony Finau win any tournament? Forget majors, can he just flat out win? He seems so close, but this narrative just won’t leave him alone. In his favor, though, are two top tens in two appearances at Augusta. He’s finished top eight in four of his last six majors, and his length makes him dangerous. If the putter is working, he’ll be in contention.
10. Colin Morikawa
In his two 2020 major appearances so far, Morikawa has won (PGA Championship) and missed the cut (U.S. Open). It’s been pretty much feast or famine since winning at Harding Park with three missed cuts and two top fifteen finishes, but Augusta sets up a player like him well. The putter (common theme) will likely decide how high he gets on the leaderboard, but this is his first Masters. It could go in any direction.
Players to Fade
Tiger Woods
The evidence is stacked against the defending champion. First off, his form is terrible. Since the restart, Tiger’s best finish is a T37 and he just concluded the ZOZO with a T72. Second, there hasn’t been a back-to-back winner at Augusta since 2001-02 when Woods himself pulled off the feat. Third, the numbers just don’t lie. Statistically, Tiger’s best strokes gained category is putting, where he is 178th. That’s his best. Look, he pulled off something crazy in 2019 but, when you look deeper, the signals for a breakthrough were there. In his six tournaments prior to last year’s win, Woods had a run of 17-T20-T15-T10-T30-T5. There’s no sign of that this time around.
Jordan Spieth
There was a time when “pick Jordan Spieth at the Masters” was automatic. Not anymore. He lost his swing awhile ago, and he can’t seem to get it back. Since the restart, Spieth’s best finish is a T10. That’s not bad! What is bad is the five missed cuts mixed in there, plus a T71 at the PGA Championship. The struggles have been off the tee, so maybe he’ll find some magic with so much room to maneuver at Augusta. Plus, he’s never finished worse than T21 at the Masters and has four top three finishes in six attempts. Still, it’s not time for the Spieth Comeback. Not yet.
Rickie Fowler
He’s gone through a swing change, and it hasn’t worked out quite yet. No top fifteens since Memphis in August, and he’s missed seven cuts in his last 15 events. Fowler has a good track record at Augusta (T9 in 2019, 2nd in 2018), but it’s just not going to happen this year.
Gray’s Pick
With all of that being said, my pick is Xander Schauffle. His game is solid and built for Augusta. He thrives on courses where the winning score is around 12-under par (seriously, it’s his zone). Six of the last ten majors have been won by first-time winners, so why not make it seven of the last eleven? Schauffle is primed and ready for the green jacket. In the SEC Golf League, Team Robertson has Rory McIlroy (Xander has already been used), and I think McIlroy has a strong chance to win. If you want a dark horse, look out for Matthew Wolff. He’s played in two majors and finished 2nd and T4. He’s also won before, so he knows how to close. Either way, this is shaping up to be a unique 84th Masters. The colors may be different and the crowds may be sparse, but the pageantry and, hopefully, the excitement remain the same. Enjoy the golf! I’ll be back after the tournament to wrap things up.