Overview: Iowa (8-4) vs Mississippi State (8-4)

The 2019 Outback Bowl will feature the Iowa Hawkeyes, who had their typical 8-4 season this year, and the Mississippi State Bulldogs, who also fared to be 8-4. The game will take place on New Year’s Day at 12pm ET in Tampa, FL at Raymond James Stadium. It should be mentioned that Iowa played in this same bowl game against the Florida Gators in 2017, losing soundly 30-3. This in itself is a cause for concern if you are a believer in history repeating itself, especially considering Iowa football is a program famous for seeing history repeat itself.

The Bulldogs are currently 7-point favorites, which is no surprise considering for one, they play in the SEC and two, faced the 5th-toughest schedule in the nation this year, compared to Iowa’s 35th-ranked strength of schedule. With that being said, the Bulldogs had a 3rd-ranked overall defense that matches similarly with Iowa’s 7th-ranked overall defense.

Potential Game-Changers

One X-factor that will very-well influence the outcome of this game is Nick Fitzgerald, who rushed for 1018 yards and 12 touchdowns this year and passed Tim Tebow for most career rushing yards by an SEC quarterback back in October. Fitzgerald could provide similar problems for the Iowa defense that Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey did in the 2016 Rose Bowl.

The Hawkeyes would have had an X-factor of their own for this game in tight end Noah Fant, but he opted not to play in this game because he already declared for the 2019 NFL Draft. Even if he were to play, who knows how much of the field he would have seen. It was apparent at some points during the season that he was not seeing the field enough. All in all, it is a smart decision for Fant to sit out and avoid any type of injury that could ruin his draft stock.

On the flip side of things, the Hawkeyes have another talented tight end, T.J. Hockenson, who happened to win this year’s John Mackey Award as the nation’s best tight end. Fant’s missed presence will not be a concern if Hockenson plays the way he has all year. This would only be fitting for the Tight End U that is known as the University of Iowa.

Bloomin’ Onion or Coconut Shrimp?

The game will likely come down to which defense comes to play. Both programs have strong defenses as mentioned before, each ranking in the top 10 in the nation overall. The bottom line for Iowa’s defense is they cannot let Nick Fitzgerald run all over them like Christian McCaffrey did a few years ago in the Rose Bowl. If they don’t have early success in stopping Fitzgerald, we will all be getting our fair share of free bloomin’ onions.

Iowa has seen some success of their own on the ground this season from a three-headed running back corps of Mekhi Sargent, Toren Young, and Ivory Kelly-Martin, combining for 1719 yards and 16 touchdowns. One more thing: Kirk Ferentz has called some trick plays throughout the season that have seen success, so that stout Mississippi State defense must beware of what “Casino Kirk” could have up his sleeve.