It’s one of the few bowls left without a sponsor, and in its sixth year, the Arizona Bowl has a great matchup for us. The original tie-ins for this game consisted of Conference USA and the Mountain West. Now, for the first time, it will be MAC vs. Mountain West. This year we are blessed with the battle of champions. MAC Champion Ball State (6-1) will face off against Mountain West Champion #22 San Jose State (7-0). This is the first bowl for the Cardinals of Ball state since their 2013 GoDaddy Bowl appearance. For the Spartans, they find themselves in their first bowl game since the Cure Bowl of 2015.
How They Got Here: Ball State
The Cardinals are playing in this game due to their amazing conference championship win over then undefeated Buffalo. This marks their first conference chip since 1996. They lost the first game of the year to Miami (OH) after the original opener Buffalo was canceled due to Covid. They then ripped off six straight wins en route to claiming the top spot in the MAC.
The Ball State offense is the backbone behind this team. They rank 22nd in the country in yards per game, and like a lot of the other MAC teams, put up a lot of points too. Their 34.3 points per has them tied for the 25th spot. Only one time this year did they score less than 30 points. The Cardinals like to do the damage through the air. They rank 26th in the pass, while only ranking an average 53rd in the run. QB Drew Plitt is the leader of this high powered offense. Plitt season number, through seven games are gaughty (1,974 yards, 19 total TDs). 15 of those 19 TDs have come in the last four games. He’s completing passes at a 65% clip and has the 20th best passer rating. Plitt has a solid trio of pass catchers as well. Yo’heinz Tyler, Justin Hall, and Antwan Davis have accounted for 1,582 of his yards and 12 of his TDs. Tyler has the most touchdown cathes with seven. Hall has the most catches and yards with 49 and 665 respectively.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Cardinals are putrid. They rank 93rd in the country in yards against and give up roughly 28 points a game. They’re decent when it comes to the run giving up 145 yards a game good enough for 46th, but against the pass they are horrendous. The give up nearly 300 yards a game, which puts them at 119th in the country. So yes, they can move the ball on offense, but their defense is paper thin.
How They Got Here: San Jose State
San Jose State made it here by winning their first conference championship since 1991. It’s also the first winning season they’ve had since 2012 when they were 21st in the final ranking. They’ve made it here in large part to head coach Brent Brennan turning the culture of the program. The Spartans won all seven of their games this year, including snapping the 13 game losing streak they had at the hands of Boise State. It was also the first time they’ve ever beaten them. This team is so good that not a single one of their games finished as a one score difference.
These Spartans like to air the ball of even more so than Ball State. They rank a little behind them in terms of total yards at 28th, but throw for 301 yards per game. They can also put the ball in the endzone at a good rate, scoring 31 points per game this season. The Spartans are led by Nick Starkel at QB who put up 1,907 yards and 16 TDs on 65% completion. Tyler Nevens is the feature back when the Spartans do decide to run the ball. The top two pass catchers are Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker. Both of them have four catches apiece on the season, while Bailey has gone for 725 yards to Walker’s 546. The redzone ball hawk goes to TE Derrick Deese. The big man has 19 catches on the year, five of them going for six.
This San Jose State defense is also very good. They are 27th in the country in total yards against per game, ranking 60th against the pass and 17th against the run. They are the definition of bend don’t break defense. With all of those yards they give up, they are only allowing teams to score 18 points per game.
Betting and Predictions
BUSR Sportsbook, as always, is where I’ll be getting the betting lines from. Head over there for any of your gambling needs. You even get a $500 bonus if you sign up through Student Union.
San Jose State is a 9.5 point favorite headed into this one. The last time Ball State was an underdog was when they were -13.5 in the MAC Championship game, which they ended up winning by ten. San Jose State is a really good team and I’m not sure if this Ball State team can keep up with how bad their defense is. I think the Cardinals will end up covering. BUSR has the over/under set at 63 points, which is what I expected with both high flying offenses. I’m inclined to pick the over because of just how bad Ball State’s defense is against the pass.