Week 4 Record: 2-2-1; Record YTD: 11-9-1

After a brief hiatus last week, I am back here to give my Week 5 edition of BBB. As we start heading into conference play, the picture starts to get a little clearer on teams. Colorado hype has ceased somewhat after Oregon gave them a humbling barnyard beatdown, while Washington is looking like the dark horse to win the National Championship. This week, I have spotted a few plays I really like and think we can get to the window with. Let’s get back to the books!

Akron ML (-135)

If you follow me on X (formerly Twitter), you know that I am on the Akron bandwagon (#BAKRON). I love that QB DJ Irons is back under center and am a fan of HC Joe Moorhead. The Zips are 2-2 ATS with an almost outright upset against Indiana last week in 4 OT. Five-star transfer Lorenzo Lingard was finally able to get loose against the B10 foe with 113 rush yards and looks very comfortable in the backfield.

Buffalo has already lost to an FCS team in Fordham as 33-point favorites, and they are having horrific problems on defense allowing 7.7 yards per play (131 in FBS). The Bulls are currently 2-2 ATS but are 0-4 on the season. This defense is a real concern only returning 5 starters from ’22 and are 130th in Opponent YPG. I do not think that improves much against this battle-tested Zips offense.

Another big situation here is Akron is currently playing with revenge, losing 23-22 last season in Buffalo. I think we have 2 teams that are trending in opposite directions, with Akron projecting upward. I think they are more battle-tested, have the talent edge, and have revenge. Give me the Zips on the ML to get the home win in MAC play.

Kansas/Texas O63.5

Let me give you the total points in the last 3 matchups involving these teams: 69, 113, 98. These teams love to have shootouts and I don’t see that changing this weekend as we have two of the premier offenses in the B12 going at it. Texas did not have to show much last weekend manhandling Baylor and Kansas outscored BYU to remain undefeated.

Both QBs are healthy in this one as Quinn Ewers and Jalon Daniels will showcase a shootout to see which team dons their first loss of the season. Texas has a major lookahead next week as they play Oklahoma in the famous Red River Rivalry, but I do not think they will be looking ahead, as Kansas knocked them off in a thriller two years ago. We have great weather in Austin and two teams who have not scored below 30 all season going at it. I truly think we see much of the same this weekend and that is plenty of points. Give me the total to FLY over the 63.5 and well into the 70s.

Arizona +18

Washington is an absolute WAGON: Yes, I know. They clearly made a statement out of Colorado last week and it was seen by the masses. Michael Penix is a no-doubt Heisman contender with the most explosive offense in the nation.

That being said, I think we are getting some great value in the home dog here. Arizona is 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS, being a moneymaker for bettors this season. I have also been very high on the Cats this season betting their season total wins over prop and so far, it’s looking nice. I am a believer in Jayden De Laura and think they have a very underrated offense in this loaded PAC-12. They handled business covering the number against inferior competition and took Mississippi State to OT in Starkville.

Arizona had a massive lookahead game last weekend sneaking out a 1-point victory over a hungry Stanford squad. What I took from that game is Arizona found a way to win after years of not being in that position as a program. Washington has a MASSIVE lookahead next week hosting Oregon after seeing the Ducks crucify the Buffs.

Getting 18 points at home with this explosive offense with an opponent in a lookahead is very attractive to me. Arizona actually has a better Red Zone scoring percentage than Washington (26th vs 31st), so we can be confident they can put the biscuit in the basket when they get in scoring territory. There is too much backdoor potential with this team to not wager my money on this home dog. Give me the Wildcats to stay within the number and if you’re feeling frisky, sprinkle that ML at +675.