Beat the Spread and ATS Picks have collaborated to make the best college basketball gambling column in the country. Both Alex Wilcox and Austin Montgomery have been on a role as of late. Alex has won over 300 units over the past month while Austin has accumulated +69 units in the month of February. We are looking to start things with a bang on tonight’s college basketball slate. Thursday slate is tricky since there is a huge disparity and disagreement between public and sharp bets. It’s time to make up the dinner bill you splurged on your bae last night, or to reimburse yourself for the bottle of crown you downed by yourself.
Austin’s Picks:
William & Mary (+4.5) @ Hofstra: 7:00 PM EST (3 Units) Bonus (W&M) (first half moneyline spread +2.5 and ML +145 (1.5 units): The Tribe has quietly been one the most consistent mid major road teams in college basketball. William & Mary has a 6-2 record in conference road games in conference. W&M has an impressive 14-6 record ATS and are 4-1 during their last 5 games. The Tribe is coming off their best offensive performance of the season where they destroyed Delaware 83-66 as a 8.5 point favorite. The Hofstra pride are coming off a lousy performance where they lost 90-70 on the road against UNCW as -3.5 point road favorites.
The Tribe has quietly been the best three point shooting team in the country according to Ken Pom making 42.6% of their shots from deep. The Hofstra Tribe have struggled defending the deep ball all year ranking 266th in three point defense and 302 overall in effective field goal percentage allowing teams to shoot 54.2 percent from the field. William and Mary is ranked 340th in defensive efficiency so the over at 161 is in play as well, but we feel the Tribe outright is the better play. As of now, the Tribe has accumulated 66% percent of the bets but they also have 91% of the money. This is a play the sharps are feasting on so we think you should come on board too.
Jacksonville St (+10.5) (2 Units) @ Murray State 8:00 PM EST ESPN 3: This line simply doesn’t make sense and I believe lines makers are falling for recency bias. The Gamecocks are coming off an atrocious 65-47 home loss against Tennessee St where the Gamecocks shot 38.6% from the field, 6-21 from 3 and 56.6% from the free throw line. The best way to bounce back from a bad game is to get ready to play a very good team. The Gamecocks have been massively undervalued all year and they have already beaten Murray St at home and Belmont on the ROAD.
In their first matchup against the Racers, the Gamecocks built up a 17 point halftime lead and Murray St used a 16-4 run in the final two minutes to make it a game. Jacksonville St has already been tested on the road this year playing on the road against Buffalo, Oregon St, Mississippi St, and Belmont. The Gamecocks are a physical defensive team that crashes the boards and that scrappy type of play travels on the road. Betting trends favor the Gamecocks, Jacksonville St is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games after a loss, and are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games. The Gamecocks have accumulated 62% of public bets and 91% of the money has been wagered on the Gamecocks. The Gamecocks have struggled as of late and Murray State is very good team. However, the reigning OVC Conference tournament champions have proven they have the talent to win the conference and always play up to the level of competition. Expect the Gamecocks to be competitive and cover the double digit point spread.
#17 Arizona @ #25 ASU 9:00 EST ESPN (Over 159) (1 unit entertainment bet). The territorial rivalry game is by far the most interesting game on the college basketball slate. The PAC-12’s two best teams square off in what is bound to be an awesome game. At Student Union, we love having fun while handicapping games. It is hard to be invested in small mid major matchups all the time. So tonight we have an “entertainment bet” for the biggest game of the day. There is nothing more enjoyable than rooting for two teams to meanlessly score. This game should be a shootout as each team will struggle stopping the other and both teams rank in the TOP 15 in offensive efficiency.
ASU has scored over 80 points in their last 3 games. They do not have a single person that is able to cover DeAndre Ayton under the basket. Even if the Sun Devils double Ayton, the over powering forward should still feast since the Wildcats average 1.14 (points per possession when teams double Ayton inside). ASU has not had success guarding frontcourt players even when they double team surrendering 1.12 points per possessions when they send extra bodies to the block. Arizona has had trouble defending the three point line all year allowing teams to shoot 36.9 percent from deep ranking 266th in the country. These seems problematic facing “Guard U” on the road. ASU guards Tra Holder, Shannon Evans, and Remy Martin all have the quickness to exploit Arizona’s perimeter defense. With just a one point spread, overtime is definitely a possibility with these two teams. Enjoy Bill Walton’s senseless commentary and point barrage in the desert by taking the over here.
Alex’s Picks:
Ohio St +1 @ Penn St 8:00 EST BTN
This is definitely the shakiest pick that either of us are rolling with tonight. Ohio State is looking for its fifth straight and to continue its triumphant regular season big ten title March. However, we all saw what happened the first time these teams saw each other in Columbus in late January. Since then, Ohio State has not lost a game. They beat Big Ten favorite Purdue on the road. Keita Bates-Diop is one of the biggest surprises of the season, having just being named to the Naismith watch list averaging just over 20 points and just under 10 rebounds a game. Penn State has not proven that they have the front court defense to restrain Bates-Diop from scoring at will. Though it should be an exceptionally close game, I expect the Buckeyes to be out for blood after losing at home to the Nittany Lions. Take the Buckeyes plus the point here at your own discretion.
“Joint Pick”
UCLA (-6.5) (2 units) and (-305ML) (5 units) vs Oregon St 11:00 PM EST FS1: : The second Pac-12 matchup is another Pac-12 after dark matchup on FS1. UCLA is projected to win by 9 points according to Kenpom. The Bruins are receiving 80% of the bets but are only receiving 62% of the money. So we are going against the sharps in this one. The Bruins have won 5 out of their last 6 home games and Oregon St has failed to win a road game all year. Though the Beavers have been exceptional in Corvallis, they’re traveling away from the dam for this one. Back on February 3rd, they failed to even pick up a road win against Cal, which is one of the poorer teams that I’ve watched all season. Expect UCLA to roll offensively tonight in what could be a close game in the first half, but should be a runaway later on for the Bruins.
-Austin Montgomery and Alex Wilcox
