Well, it’s another big Saturday in February for college basketball, meaning it’s sadly one of the last chances us handicappers have to do some significant damage on the books over the course of 12 straight hours. We fared nicely with our picks on Thursday, though admittedly it could’ve been better. A half-point cover by UCLA against Oregon State really helped to save the night as it was coming to a close. Regardless, any serious College Basketball bettor knows that Saturday is the payday they’ve been waiting for all week. Creating this article required quite a bit of team chemistry. It would not have been possible with out our team member orientation and ice-breakers! Without wasting any more time, let’s get to our picks.
Austin’s picks:
Villanova @ Xavier (+1.5) : Everyone and their mothers are on Villanova Saturday afternoon, but here I am telling you to pick against the trendy road favorite. Why? Xavier matches up talent wise but statistically the Wildcats have the edge in transition offense, three point shooting, and recent history. Xavier backers can take solace in the fact that the Musketeers have shot 23.6% from three over the last three games. The Wildcats will be without Phil Booth who scored 21 points in their last matchup against the Musketeers. Jay Wright has dominated Chris Mack in their last 10 matchups going 9-1 Straight up and against the spread, but despite beating trends favoring Nova we are going contrarian and picking Xavier to win Saturday.
#9 Gonzaga (-24.5) vs Pepperdine: The Zags are on a roll and they are starting to look like last year’s final four team. They’ll match up with the last place Pepperdine Waves who have been abysmal this season, especially on the road. Gonzaga beat Pepperdine 89-59 on the road in Malibu. Pepperdine is coming off a heartbreaking OT loss to BYU at home. Now they have to travel from beautiful and sunny Malibu to gloomy Spokane, which is depressing in and of itself. College basketball teams traveling on short rest is very rare. It’s even more prevalent when a last place team is traveling to play #9 team in the country. The Zags have been suffocating teams with their defense and have been frustrating defenses with their versatile offense. In their last 5 games, the Bulldogs have limited their opponents to just 58.2 points per game and have allowed teams to shoot just 37.2 percent from the field. Pepperdine has been poor on both sides of the ball. They rank 254th in effective field goal percentage and rank in the bottom of nearly every single advanced defensive metric. I like the Zags the cover at home fairly easily.
Alex’s picks:
NC State (+2.5) @ Wake Forest: This line doesn’t make much sense to me, but Wake has been given the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers when at home for the better part of ACC play. The Demon Deacons historically defend their home court extraordinarily well, but they’ve bottomed out this season, earning an overall record of just 10-16 and just 3 conference wins all season. The Wolfpack on the other hand continue to be dished out disrespectful lines, even after appearing to trend upward. NC State won their last game at Syracuse 74-70, fending off a late Cuse run and holding off a Jim Boeheim coached team that seemingly always improves down the stretch heading into March. The Wolfpack sit at 17-9 and 7-6 in the conference, making this a crucial game to their tourney hopes. I would take NC State ATS in one of my more confident picks today. If you have a bit of extra cash, take them on the moneyline because the chances of them winning this game outright are high.
#20 West Virginia (+3) @ #13 Kansas: Coming at you with another unpopular pick to the betting public, I’m here to say that I’m in love with the road dog in this crucial Big 12 blockbuster. The Mountaineers are coming off an impressive homestand where they dismantled a TCU offense that had been scoring an average 85 points per game in conference play. “Press” Virginia held them to 66 and won the game by 16. This feels like a game that Kansas expects to win, but the typical Fog Allen homecourt dominance by the Jayhawks simply hasn’t been there this season. The bottom line is that West Virginia boasts the top defense in the conference, while Kansas has struggled offensively down the stretch. Expect Jevon Carter to excel on both sides of the ball, but the true X-factors for WVU will be 3-point sharpshooter Lamont West and the energizer bunny off the bench in Beedle Bolden. If the West Virginia offense can flow nicely and get solid production from these two, I not only expect WVU to cover the 3, but I expect them to shock the nation and win in Phog Allen’s house.
Disclaimer: Keeping it simple is the name of the game in sports handicapping and betting. Don’t chase, don’t try to bet 20 games, and certainly don’t bet blindly without doing your research. Good luck out there today and remember, keep it to these four picks. Let’s get some money!
