A new edition of the Beat the Spread’s perfect parlay includes six teams. In honor of national writing day, I wrote up lengthy piece that includes picks for six different match ups. We are currently 14-8-6 ATS spread this season, so let’s see where we stand after this week.
#16 USF -11.5 @ Tulane: Last week USF tied an NCAA record of scoring 30 or more points for the 23rd consecutive game. The Bulls should have no trouble putting up points against this Tulane defense. Ths is a matchup between two teams who love to run the ball. However, the Bulls running game will be very effective against the Tulane defense that is surrendering over 200 rushing yards per contest. Quinton Flowers is one of the most dynamic players in the country and he should have his way with the Green Wave defense. The Bulls have only allowed two 100 yard rushers in their first six games. Their talented defensive front should be able to slow down the Tulane triple option attack. The Bulls have won their last four road games. Expect the Bulls to jump on top of the Green Waves early, and the one-dimensional Tulane offense won’t have the capability to come back.
Final score prediction USF 38- Tulane 17.
LSU @ Ole Miss +7.5: There is no justification for an Ed Orgeron coached LSU team to be giving-up-a-touchdown on the road. This line is simply inexcusable and we are gonna CRUSH the bookies for it. Ole Miss possesses one of the most talented wide receiver cores in the nation, led by AJ Brown, Van Jefferson, and Damarkus Lodge. Quarterback Shea Patterson seems to have found his rhythm, quietly becoming the best QB in the SEC statistically. Patterson leads the conference with 2,143 passing yards and a 66 percent completion rate, and is tied at 17 touchdowns tossed. LSU secondary ranks 14th against the pass, but they haven’t faced a passing attack like Ole Miss. The Rebels should put up at least 3 touchdowns, and this LSU offense is incapable of scoring 4 touchdowns on anybody, including Troy. This scenario sets up up for the perfect trap game scenario-with the Tigers looking forward to a matchup against Alabama into the upcoming week. The bowl ineligible Rebels don’t have much to play for, but the Rebels should be motivated to get a home win in the Magnolia Bowl against the dreadful rival. The Rebels win this game outright:
Final score predictions: Ole Miss 28 LSU 24.
Arizona -2 and (Over 61.5) @ Cal: The Pac-12 media tabbed Arizona and Cal as last-place finishers in the South and North divisions, respectively, in the preseason poll. Midway into the 2017 season, the Wildcats and Golden Bears are both on pace to prove the pundits wrong. Arizona has the 4th ranked rushing offense in all of college football and they have had two consecutive 400 yard rushing performances since Khalil Tate took over the quarterback role. Cal will have to stop this potent rushing attack without their Mike linebacker and best rush defender Devante Downs. Downs is a two time Pac-12 defensive player of the week and leads the Bears in tackles (65) and tackles for loss (6.5) while also collecting 2 interceptions and 2 force fumbles. Cal QB Ross Bowers been exceptional over the last couple of weeks, but a potential shootout does not favor the Bears. Stopping the Arizona offense without your best run defender is a daunting task. Arizona has the best athlete on the field in Khalil Tate and the Wildcats win in another shootout.
Final score prediction Arizona 48-Cal 42.
Florida St @ Louisville (Under 59). Both of these teams were suppose to be ACC title contenders and this was suppose to a focal game to decide the college football playoff. However, now we have these two fan bases trying argue which team is worse on reddit. The lowest ticket price to enter Papa John Cardinals stadium is $8. Comparatively, tickets for Purdue and Rutgers start at $49…yikes! The reddit users of each of these two teams make a great point: both of these teams aren’t very good. However, these teams both have dominant defenses with plenty of NFL players on that side of the ball. You may think I’m crazy taking the under against Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, but it fair to note that Jackson has a raw QBR of 56.5 against top 15 defensive fronts over the past two years according to PFF. I think Louisville can potentially cover the 6.5, but the under is the safest play here.
Final Score Prediction Florida St 27 Louisville 24.
#4 TCU (-39) vs Kansas: Kansas may be the worst team in major conference football history. This Kansas team is totally inept and they will be outmatched on the road against the Horned Frogs on Saturday. I don’t think TCU will be complacent after Kansas gave them a scare for 3 quarters in Lawrence last year. The Horned Frogs are a top 5 team in the nation and they should put 50+ points against the Jayhawks fairly easily. Kansas’ top offensive lineman Mesa Ribordy and running back Khalil Herbert will not be available for Saturday. Last week against Iowa St, it took 15 possessions for the Kansas offense to pass their OWN 35 yard line. I’ll be surprised if the Jayhawks manage to score a touchdown this game. TCU won’t have any problems improving to 7-0. Frogs by a million.
Final score predictions: TCU 56-3 Kansas
Iowa (+1.5) @ Northwestern: For our bonus pick of the week, we got the Iowa Hawkeyes over the Northwestern Wildcats. If you looked up inconsistency in the dictionary, you would get a picture of the 2017 Northwestern Wildcats. Justin Jackson is coming off his best game of the season after a 171 yard performance on the road aagjnst Maryland. Ironically, Northwestern has played significantly worse while playing at home. I love the Hawkeyes here after coming off a bye. Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley has quietly become one of the best QB’s in the BIG, throwing for 15 touchdowns vs only 2 interceptions. Iowa’s front seven is healthy again and they should be able to limit the Northwestern ground game. Iowa wins a much needed game on the road.
Final score predictions Iowa 21 Northwestern 17.