Site icon Student Union Sports

Beat the Spread: Austin’s Balls to the Wall Moneyline Call

Oct 4, 2014; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi Rebels fans hang from the goal posts after a win against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. The Rebels won 23-17. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

There are always multiple upsets over the course of the college football week. The fact that on any given Saturday any team can beat each other is what makes college football great.  Over the course of this week, I have dwelled into research to predict the biggest upsets during this college football slate. There are zero journalist that would publish these kind of outlandish picks on the record. There are very even few people that would wager on these teams. Fortunately, I’m crazy enough to not be one of those people. Let’s get crazy, and dive into the teams that can shock the college football world this weekend. 

Ohio (+2800)(+27.5) @ Tennessee:  My balls deep underdog happens to be the Ohio Bobcats. This pick may have already motivated you to exit out this article, but if you are still with me,  here me out on this pick.    Here are a few factors that tell me they have a shot.  Tennessee is a team that is notorious for playing up (or down) to their competition. This is another potential trap game for the Vols. It’s worthy to mention that Ohio is the only FBS program to have the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator for the past 12 seasons. Frank Solich is one of the best coaches that you have never heard of. Ohio is a team that is stacked with experienced upperclassmen and are disciplined hard-nosed football team that will not back down to the Vols inside Neyland Stadium.  

Ohio comes in with a very talented offense that has scored 45 points per game.  Tennessee is coming off playing on ESPN’s College Gameday vs Virginia Tech, and they are a week away from opening up SEC play against rival Florida. Tennessee’s offense his 10x better when Dobbs gets involved running the football. If history repeats itself, Butch Jones will be conservative with Dobbs and rely on Hurd and Kamara to carry the run game.  

The competitiveness of this game will depend on whether Tennessee can avoid having another sluggish start. The Volunteers have been abysmal in the first quarter having been outscored 21-3 in the opening period. If the Vols stumble out of the gate once again it will provide an abundance of opportunities for the Bobcats. On the other side of the coin Ohio has been a great first quarter team outscoring opponents 21-0. If the Vols are expecting this game to be an afternoon cakewalk there going to be in for a rough surprise.  The key matchup for this game will be the Tennessee offensive line vs the Ohio front seven.  The Tennessee offensive line has looked lost in the first two games.  The Vols up front struggled against a very undersized Appalachian state D-line, and they looked bad against Virginia Tech. The O-Line has struggled to efficiently pick up blitzes which have caused Dobbs to be hurried on nearly 50% his drop backs. Look for the Ohio defensive coaches and the Bobcats experienced front seven to take advantage of this. Note there is only one underclassman in the Bobcats two-deep depth chart. The Bobcat’s front are a deep and discipline that will present different looks incorporating various stunts that are sure to cause confusion in the Vol’s zone blocking scheme. The Bobcats will need star defensive end Tarelle Basham to cause havoc in the Vol’s backfield.  In just two games the Bobcats have gotten 7 sacks, and their front seven has allowed opposing ball carriers to gain 2.3 yards per carry.The Bobcats will have a chance to win this game  If they can win the line scrimmage while managing to consistently wrap up Tennessee ball carriers Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. The Bobcats are going to force quarterback Joshua Dobbs to beat them from the pocket. The one biggest mismatch the Vols have over the Bobcats is in the aerial passing game. The Bobcats allowed Texas State to pass for over 400 yards on their home turf. The Vols passing offense has been mediocre over the first few games. Joshua Dobbs has been inaccurate throwing the deep ball. This would be the game where Dobbs can showcase his arm. If the Tennessee fails to get the passing game going against the Bobcats, the Vols will be airless all season long. I think Ohio keeps this game close, and the Vols will find a way to screw this game up it the final minutes. My prediction, the Bobcats win on a missed field goal escaping Neyland with a 21-20 victory.  

Ole Miss (+300) (+11) over BAMA. In my past article I already guaranteed that Ole Miss is going to cover. However, here I’m going to tell you the Rebels are going to win the game. The cover photo of this article shows the results of the last time the Tide traveled to Oxford.    Ole Miss will have a chance to win the game late in the fourth quarter. `Look for the Rebels to upset the Tide for the third year in a row. 

Fresno State (+900)(+20) @ Toledo: This is more of a gut pick. Toledo has an astounding offense lead by Kareem Hunt and Logan Woodside. However, they are simply favored by too many points against a team that has similar talent.  I’m picking the Bulldogs to win the game,  but I’m not will guarantee them to cover the three touchdown spread.  Toledo as dynamic offense that can potentially put 40+ points on the board against the Bulldogs, and Fresno State has shown they are dysfunctional enough to stink up the joint. If the Fresno State team that hung with Nebraska for three-quarters shows up to play, the Bulldogs should come away with a win.  Fresno State will need to focus on finishing off drives, and Quarterback Chase Vigil needs to put his star receiving trio in a position to make plays. Long-time Fresno State head coach DeRuyter is coaching for his job this year, and a road win against Toledo will help security. The Bulldogs will show up to play and will steal a win the Glass Bowl by a score of 34-31.

 

Exit mobile version