Balls to the Wall Call
During last week’s column we highlighted Syracuse’s upset victory over Virginia Tech. Check out to see who we have on upset alert this week.
#2 Ohio State @ (+20) (+789) Penn State
5:00 PM on ABC
Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pennsylvania
Our guy Erik Oakley already talked about how Penn St can pull off this miraculous upset in his article: http://www.studentunionsports.com/college-football/the-5-things-penn-state-must-do-to-knock-off-ohio-state/eoakley and it convinced me to put it on the Balls to the Wall Call. There is something special about a white out in Happy Valley. I am still not convinced that J.T. Barrett is a very good quarterback. He’s a very good football player, but he can’t consistently throw the ball down the field. I expect Barrett to struggle once again against a very good secondary in a hostile atmosphere. The Nittany Lions have struggled to replace the talent they lost to the NFL from their front seven. If Penn St can find a way to stop the Buckeyes run game, the Nittany Lions will have a chance to pull off the biggest upset of the year.
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+11) (+407)(Over/Under 84.5)
Game Time: 8:00 pm
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Network: FOX
One of the hardest things to analysis is to predict how players are going to respond to intense emotion. Oklahoma is playing their best football of the year heading into their matchup in Lubbock, Texas. There are many storylines surrounding this game including Baker Mayfield first return to Lubbock since he transferred from Texas Tech to Oklahoma following the 2013 season. Mayfield will be eager to stick it to his former team and coach. Although motivation is generally a good thing, Mayfield has become overly enthusiastic at times. In big games such as the college football playoff, Houston, and Ohio State, early adrenaline as forced Mayfield to make some mistakes. Both offenses will go off, and there is a good chance the team totals can surpass the insanely high over/under. Mayfield will need to avoid making early mistakes. Sooners running back Joe Mixon will have a breakout game against Texas Tech’s abysmal front seven. Patrick Mahomes captains the nation’s second best offense against a very young and struggling defense. Oklahoma should win the game, but it’s hard to go against Mahomes at home. Put the Sooners on upset alert.
#6 Texas A&M (+19) (+526) @ #1 Alabama:
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Place: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Alabama)
TV: CBS
I’ve picked against Saban’s tide the last three weeks so screw it I’m going to pick against Bama again this week. We all remember what happened the last time Trevor Knight played Alabama. Trevor Knight has been very successful despite an unimpressive career stat line. Knight boast a career 55 percent completion rate, but he has 17-4 record as a starter and has nation’s second-best QBR in the 4th quarter BR of 85.7 in the fourth quarter and overtime of games is second best in the SEC behind only Alabama’s Jalen Hurts (97.2). However, this game is not going to be decided by the offenses. This is a matchup that pairs the best two defensive fronts in the country. Each quarterback completes less than 33 percent of their passes while hurried under pressure. The deciding factor of this game is which defense can make the most plays. Texas A&M’s defensive front can expose Jared Hurt’s weaknesses. Texas A&M has the type of playmakers that create big plays against this Alabama secondary who given up big plays to Ole Miss and Arkansas. If Knight manages the game well he can get his second win against the Crimson Tide, and there are very few quarterbacks that have accomplished that fleat.
#17 Arkansas (+10.5) (+249)(O/U:54.5) @ #21 Auburn: The Razorbacks will try to win for the second week in a row as a double digit underdog. Arkansas +10.5 is one of my favorite plays of the week. However, the Razorbacks should have a chance to win this game. In the team’s last six games as a road underdog, Arkansas is 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS per the OddsShark College Football Database. Auburn has been on a roll since their win against LSU. The 4-2 Tigers are 5-1 ATS. The most interesting battle to watch is Arkansas hefty offensive line against Auburn’s talented defensive front led by defensive end duo Carl Lawson and Marlon Davidson. Razorback quarterback Austin Allen has been very good under center, and he has lead Arkansas’s balanced offensive attack. Bret Bielema adds another marquee SEC road win to his resume.
Georgia Southern @ New Mexico St (+14)(+481):
When: Saturday, October 22 – 8:00 p.m. ET
Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, NM
Broadcast: ESPN3
If you are an old school football fan that enjoys running backs blazing down the field then this the game for you. This is a matchup that displays two of the best rushing offenses in the country. Georgia Southern will feature their old school triple option attack and New Mexico state has one of the most dynamic running backs in the country in Larry Rose. The Eagles have dropped their last 3 games all on the road. They will travel across the country for their fourth consecutive road game when they visit Las Cruces. There have been two types of Aggie’s teams that have showed up to play this year, the home version and the road version. New Mexico St, has been atrocious playing away from Las Cruces signified by their negative 106 point differential on the road. So far, the Aggies are undefeated in Las Cruces after beating rival rival New Mexico and conference foe Louisiana-Lafayette. The New Mexico State football program has suffered through depressing time over the last decade, and this is best team the Aggies have had in years. The Aggies will need to win this game to keep their bowl berth dreams alive. Expect the home Aggies to show up big, and coach Doug Martin will get one of the biggest wins in recent memory. Final score prediction 41-38 New Mexico St.