Balls to the Wall Moneyline Call:
In this edition of Beat the Spread, we will have a feature dedicated to calling upsets in this week slate. There are a lot of big games this college football weekend and many of the underdogs are getting overlooked. Each of these teams has chances to make a big statement. Here are my teams that are on upset alert this weekend.
1: #8 Wisconsin (+10) (+325) vs Ohio St: The last time Ohio State and Wisconsin played the Buckeyes put on a show in a 59-0 beatdown in the 2014 B1G Ten championship game that sent the Buckeyes into the college football playoff. Aside from the B1G Ten matchup, the contests between UW and the Buckeyes have been relatively close. Wisconsin plus the 10 points are one of my favorite bets of the week however, I think they are going to do more than just cover the spread. The Badgers are 3-0 against the spread as an underdog, and they have won outright in two of those matchups. This week 7 matchup could be a preview of this year’s Big Ten championship game. The 8th ranked Badgers have been the biggest surprise in college football after starting off the season 4-1 with wins against LSU and at Michigan St. The Badgers dropped their first game on the road in a hard-fought battle against Michigan in Ann Arbor. The Badgers have overachieved thus far and will try to add to their magical season with against the Buckeyes. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have looked like the most dominant team in football. Despite losing 12 players to NFL draft, the Buckeyes were the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten, and they have lived up to expectations thus far.
The biggest storyline in this game is the Badgers defense against the Buckeyes potent offense. The Buckeyes offense is rolling averaging 53.2 yards per contest. The Buckeyes offensive success can be attributed to their ground game; ranked 3rd best in the nation averaging astounding 323.6 yards per game. The Buckeyes offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage and Meyer has been able to get player makers Curtis Samuel and Mike Weber in open space. However, the Buckeyes passing offense has been boom or bust this season. Last season, the Buckeyes offense struggled at times because they had problems throwing the ball down the field. A year later nothing has changed as Barrett has had thrown the ball at poor 7.94 yards per attempt clip with an average 64% completion percentage. In five games Barrett has only thrown for 984 yards, and most yards came against cupcake opponents Rutgers and Bowling Green. J.T. Barrett struggled at home against Indiana where he completed just 43% of his passes (9-21) with 94 yards while throwing one touchdown and interceptions. In the game against Indiana Barrett was just 1-7 on passes traveling over 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. However, Barrett does not hold all for his lack of downfield success, a consistent deep threat has not emerged from the Buckeyes receiving core. Currently, H-Back Curtis Samuel leads the Buckeyes in receptions and targets, also was the benefactor of the Buckeyes longest play when Curtis Samuel burst a 79-yard touchdown receptions after pulling in a short slant against Bowling Green.
The lack of a deep passing game has not detriment the Buckeyes offensive success because they have been extremely successful running the ball. Barrett has been tossed around as a Heisman contender, but he will need a big game against the Badgers to prove his name belongs in the same discussion as Lamar Jackson and DeShaun Watson.
So far the Buckeyes have been productive in the air using short passes such as quick screens, bubble screens, short crossing routes, slants, and play action to keep the defense honest. However, this sequence is not gonna the Buckeyes are not going to light up the score against Wisconsin’s elite defense. Wisconsin’s success has been a attributed to their stout defense that ranks 6th in the S&P rankings one slot higher than Ohio State. In addition, the Badgers ranked 2nd in the nation in pass defense efficiency. So Urban Meyer’s dink and dunk strategy is not going to work against this Badgers squad. In addition, the Badgers boost the nation’s 4th best rushing defense despite facing the nation’s top rushing attacks. Last week, the Badgers stomped the Wolverine offense lead by Devion Smith and one of the O-Lines in the country. On the ground, the Wolverines had only 130 yards on 44 carries resulting in just 3.0 yards per carry clip. Against Leonard Fournette and LSU the Badgers only surrendered 126 total yards on the ground; it’s fair to mention that Fournette was out of the game for a period of time. The Badgers defense has always been Wisconsin’s backbone, however under the leadership of new coordinator Justin Wilcox the Badgers defense have reached new heights in intensity. The Badgers have the formula to stopping the Buckeyes offense, they line up fast, play with tempo, and they dominate the trenches. Look for Wisconsin linebackers T.J. Watt, Garrett Gourley, and Zach Braun. Ohio State will not be able to knife through this Wisconsin defense. Barrett is going to have to make explosive plays in the air in order to take this game on the road. The Badgers will thrive playing under the lights in the great atmosphere of Camp Randall Stadium.
Obviously, the key for Wisconsin will be the keep this game low scoring. Both teams have solid defenses that rarely give up points. However, the Badger offense will need to make a few plays in order to pull off the upset. More importantly, quarterback Alex Hornibrook has to avoid throwing interceptions. Hornibrook turned the ball over three times in their 14-7 loss against Michigan, and it was essentially the deciding the factor of the game. The Buckeyes are very good at turning takeaways into points. The Badgers cannot avoid to give the Buckeyes points on turnovers. The Badger’s offensive line has a slight advantage over the Buckeyes defensive front, and Wisconsin will rely on running backs Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale to anchor the offense. It will be key for the Badgers to sustain to drive to limit the Buckeyes offense on the field. Wisconsin’s defense should keep this thing interesting, but the Buckeyes have proven they can win games on the road. Weird things happen late at night in Camp Randall stadium, and the last time the Buckeyes got bounced 31-18 the last time they walked into Wisconsin has a Top 2 team. The Wisconsin defense will stop the Buckeyes offense and will expose J.T. Barrett’s lack of a passing game. The defense will create some timely turnovers to give the Badgers enough to knock off the #2 ranked Buckeyes. The first team to score 20 points wins this one: final 20-13 Badgers!
2: : #9 Tennessee (+8) (+350) vs #1 Alabama: In my first “Balls to the Wall” call I picked against the Vols as 27 point favorites against Ohio. Fast forward five weeks later, I’m picking the Volunteers to knock off the top ranked Crimson Tide. Oh, how things have changed. Despite 7 turnovers, the Vols mounted a 21 point comeback in the final 8 minutes to force their game with the # 6 ranked Aggies into overtime. Being able to force one of the nation’s best despite the 7 turnovers is VERY impressive. The Vols ultimately loss 45-38 because of their 7th turnover of the game, but the group showed a lot of potential promise. During free passing drives in the fourth quarter, Tennessee offensive line vastly improved on protecting Joshua Dobbs from the pressures of the nation’s best pass rushers in Myles Garrett and Deshon Hall. This is important because the Volunteers have one of the worst offensive lines in the country. According to PFF, the Vols rank 181st out of the 210 in pass blocking efficiency and they are going up against statistically the best pass rush in the country.
The matchup alone signals a very bad sign for the Volunteers on Sunday. However, the resiliency the Volunteers have shown in their 3 second half comebacks are impossible to ignore. The Volunteers have exhibited second half brilliance and have exhibited 4th quarter perfection in their comeback victories against Virginia Tech, Florida, and Georgia.
You are going to need to some magic to beat a team that has won 18 straight games dating back to last year. Since 2008, there have only been 11 different teams that have beaten Saban’s Tide. In addition, Saban’s defense has notoriously been susceptible to dual threat Quarterbacks. In order for the Tennessee to have success Dobbs has to throw the ball down the field. In games against Ole Miss, the Tide gave up 413 yards to Chad Kelley and gave up 400 additional passing yards last week to Arkansas’s Austin Allen. In Tennessee’s second-half comebacks Dobbs threw for 319 yards against a very good Florida D and carved 394 yards through the air against A&M. The Volunteers will need Dobbs to be the best player on the field and will need to make plays with his arm and his feet. The Tide still present the nation’s number 1 defense despite facing the likes of USC, Ole Miss, and Arkansas. Last season, the Vols played the Tide tough in Tuscaloosa falling 19-14. This is a do or die game for Tennessee so they will be playing with nothing to lose. With that being said the Vols should be aggressive early to avoid having another slow start. If the Vols can get off to a good start in addition to avoiding the turnover bug they will be hanging with the number one ranked Crimson Tide. The spread has fallen dropped from 13 to 8 points since Thursday. Tennessee’s stout front seven should limit Alabama’s run game, and Jalen Hurd will have to make plays in a hostile atmosphere. After a stumbling block at College Station look for the Tennessee’s magical season to continue. The stats don’t perfectly align, but I have a feeling the Vols pull this off. Prediction 45-38 Tennessee.
3: Syracuse (+17) (+760) vs #17 Virginia Tech: Last week both teams traveled to North Carolina to play in the rugged, stormy, and muddy conditions caused by Hurricane Matthew . The Hokies benefitted from the storm as they were able to shut down North Carolina’s potent offense in rOverall, Orange quarterback Eric Dungey has the Orange as the 12th-ranked passing unit in the nation with 336.3 yards per game.route to a huge 34-3 victory. However, the rainy conditions hindered the Syracuse passing offense. The Orange will benefit playing in the safety confines of the Carrier Dome. In addition to a possible hangover performance after a big North Carolina wins, the Hokies may be caught looking ahead towards their home matchup against 16th ranked Miami. Overall, Orange quarterback Eric Dungey has the Orange as the 12th-ranked passing unit in the nation with 336.3 yards per game. The Orange have been very successful moving the ball at home. Look for Dino Babers to get his first signature win in. Cuse pulls off the upset 34-27.
4. Indiana (+8) (+210)vs #12 Nebraska: I was generally surprised that this spread has climbed to points generally making an Indiana a must play with the spread. As mentioned before Indiana hung tough with Ohio State on the road, and they had a big overtime win against Michigan St. On the other side, the Cornhuskers are enjoying a solid 5-0 start that includes a win against Oregon. Both teams have been surprising success stories thus far. Both teams have solid offensive backfields. Indiana is led by junior quarterback Ricky Lagow, and aside from his 5 interception performance against Wake Forest Lagow has been pretty good:totaling 1460 yards with 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions through five games. Lagow is complemented by running back Devine Redding who has rushed for 491 yards but has failed to enter the endzone. Nebraska is led by veteran Quarterback Tommy Armstrong who has quietly put up 1151 yards while throwing 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Armstrong is complemented by running backs Terrell Newby and Devine Ozigbo; however, Ozigbo is questionable for Saturday’s contest. Also, Armstrong top target Jordan Westerkamp will not suit up against Indiana. Nebraska also presents a solid defense that ranks 16th nationally in yards per play and has only given up more than 17 points one time this season. This one of the most intriguing matchups during Saturday’s college football slate. The upset-minded Hoosiers should build upon their performance against the Buckeyes and they will pull off the upset at home.
Final score: 27-21 Hoosiers.