In the debut issue of “Beat the Spread”, our picks went a modest 2-0-2 ATS. If it wasn’t for Mark Helfers terrible two-minute clock management, and BYU garbage touchdown; we would have been a perfect 4-0. More importantly, I would have been $1,100 richer. In college football shit like that happens, and that’s why it’s a great game to watch. Here is the big 411 on the some of the games you need to look out for on Saturday’s slate.
Lock of the Week
(-10) Tennessee vs Florida : Florida has won the last 12 games against the Volunteers, but expect their streak over the Vols to end on Saturday. The Gators will be heading to Knoxville without their starting quarterback Luke Del Rio Del; who has completed 61.4 percent of his passes in his two-plus games for 762 yards and six touchdowns. Del Rio sustained a knee injury last week in the third quarter against North Texas. Del Rio will be replaced by Purdue transfer Austin Appleby who threw for 1260 yards on 57.4 completion percentage clip while throwing eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. As a starter, Appleby holds a career 2-9 record as a starter and sports a horrendous 41.6 career QBR. Appleby is already a horrendous Quarterback, but it is also important to mention that the Tennessee coaching staff is very familiar with the new Florida QB. Tennessee head coach Butch Jones heavily recruited Appleby in 2012 while he was on staff at Cincinnati. In addition, defensive coordinator Bob Shoop’s brother, John Shoop was Appleby’s offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Purdue for the last two seasons. Knowing the opposing quarterbacks strength and weaknesses, the Vols coaching staff will create a gameplan to fluster the new QB. Last season the Gators went “three and out” on more than 33% of their drives last season; expect that trend to continue on Saturday. We may have to sweat out the spread but the Vols should cover. If Joshua Dobbs can avoid making big mistakes Tennessee should beat the Gators easily.
Final score 24-6 Tennessee.
Vegas Trap Bet: Avoid Stanford.
UCLA (+3) Stanford: The spread has continued to climb down in this game, for good reason. This is a perfect example of a trap bet. Stanford favored by only a field goal against a struggling UCLA team looks enticing. It’s only to get worse when the line eventually drops to a “pick em” by kickoff. Everyone and their grandmothers will pick Stanford, but I’m here to warning you not to die with the masses. Here’s why you should at least stay away from picking the Cardinal here. David Shaw has been a thorn in Jim Mora’s ass during his coaching tenure at Westwood. The Stanford Cardinal is the only Pac-12 team that Mora has not been able to beat since his arrival at UCLA. Shaw’s teams have beaten the Bruins 5 times during Mora’s 4-year tenure at UCLA. After a shaky to start the season, and they are in a huge need of a big win. It is hard to bet on a team that has the superhuman Christian Mccaffrey. If you disregard the handful of big plays Mccaffrey has made, the Cardinal have been very inconsistent and ineffective on offense. Mccaffrey’s superstar status has brought Stanford over excessive hype. With top-ranked Washington coming to town this week, the game vs UCLA is a possible look ahead spot for Stanford. Stanford will make their first road appearance in the Rose Bowl against a very hungry Bruin team. UCLA has a stout and experienced defense that held Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams to a combined 24 yards on 21 carriers. The UCLA defense has a very talented and athletic linebacking core anchored by veterans Jayon Brown and Isaako Savaiinaea. The linebacking core is complemented by one of the best secondaries in the country. If you are in some type of college football pool I would highly suggest going contrarian and picking the Bruins. Jim Mora finally picks the “David Shaw” thorn out of his ass, and the Bruins walk out of the Rose Bowl with a W.
Balls to the Wall Underdog Moneyline Call:
Louisville (-19)(-2750) @ Marshall (+1450): Last week I bet $50 on Louisville to win the national championship, but six days later I’m picking them to lose as a threescore favorite on the road to Marshall. Lamar Jackson and the Louisville Cardinals performance against the Seminoles last Saturday has garnered well-deserved national attention and praise. However, all of this good press can cause more harm than good to a young aspiring quarterback like Lamar Jackson. After a huge win against Florida State, and with Clemson coming up next week the Cardinal are walking into a dangerous trap game. The Thundering Herd have won 33 games over the past three years under Jon Holliday. They have won 20 of their last 21 at home. The Thundering Herd are lead by their Quarterback Chase Litton who also has the capability to light up the scoreboard. In two games Litton has already passed for 722 yards and 10 touchdowns. The safest bet to play would be to take the over with these two dynamic offenses. Saturday’s game should test the Cardinals mental toughness and discipline. If the Cardinals do not show up to play the Thundering Herd will be waiting to knock them in the mouth.