On the morning of my 21st, you will see me at the sports book betting on College Football. I have spent hours of researching preparing for this day Saturday , and in my opening column, I want to share my picks with all of you. In my weekly column “beat the spread” I will share my favorite picks that will create the perfect parlay. Here I will share and analyze my top 4 college football picks against the spread.
- Vanderbilt +(6.5) at Georgia Tech: Coach Paul Johnson is trying to rebound from an abysmal 3-9 season. The Yellow Jackets should return closer towards the form of their team that won 11 games and the Orange Bowl. The Yellow Jackets return star quarterback Justin Thomas, and he is finally getting to run behind a healthy offensive line. The key to this game is whether Georgia Tech can somewhat slow down Vanderbilt running back Ralph Webb. Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmur has been one of the most effective Quarterbacks in the country thus far. Georgia Tech is going to stack the box to stop Webb on first and second down. If Georgia Tech can put Vandy in third and long situations it will be a long day for the Commodores. On the road with a mediocre Quarterback Vanderbilt will have a hard time moving the ball. It’s hard to give up a touchdown with Vanderbilt’s defense, but considering the difficulty of preparing for Paul Johnson’s offense in a week; I see the Yellowjackets covering the spread and winning this one 21-13.
- Oregon (+3) @ Nebraska: Oregon will once again travel to play a September game in BIG 10 country in the iconic Memorial Stadium in Lincoln Nebraska. Nebraska has started out very sluggish in its first two games against Fresno State and Wyoming. The final scores of 43-10 and 52-17 are very deceptive. Both Wyoming and Fresno State were competitive through three-quarters, but the less talented Mountain West teams made crucial mistakes that allowed the Cornhuskers to run away with the games in the 4th quarter. In both games, Tommy Armstrong was very ineffective of throwing the ball from the pocket, and he does not have the capabilities to take advantage of the Duck’s week secondary. In addition, the Ducks continue to maintain their high-octane offense led by FCS grad transfer Dakota Prukop. With the new Quarterback The Ducks tempo and timing have been off at times seen in the UC Davis game, but that’s a really season issue that will be cleaned up with more reps. The main key for this game is whether the Ducks will be able to capitalize on earlier opportunities. If the Ducks are able to jump out to an early lead, the Cornhuskers do not have the team that is built the comeback. Oregon has so many playmakers on offense and they should put up a lot of points. The key for Mike Riley and Nebraska is to control the clock by being very efficient on offense. The Oregon offense has an arsenal player makers, and they will be able to finish off drives. Oregon is ranked 11th in the S&P+ rankings while Nebraska is 26th yet the Cornhuskers are favored in Vegas at home. I love the Ducks plus the three points, but I also think the Ducks are going to win the game outright. Vegas loves Nebraska, but I’ll go with the Ducks here. Ducks will come out of Nebraska with a W. My prediction 41-34 Ducks.
- Alabama (-11) @ Ole Miss: Understandably, I typically get screwed when I pick against the Crimson Tide. However, I feel this important example of an over inflated spread, and the Rebels should be able to cover at home. This game is a must win for Todd Freeze and the Rebels after a disappointing fourth quarter collapse against FSU. That poor second half showing on national television is enclosed in the gamblers’ heads, and that’s why the Rebels are double-digit underdogs at home. Historically the Rebels play in front of one of the best crowds in college football and have always played well at home. The Rebels have beat Alabama in their last two meetings. Ole Miss has a leader at QB in Chad Kelly who can make big plays and avoid big mistakes. In addition, the Crimson Tide still have not figured out their offensive identity yet, and the Rebels support a very good defensive. The Ole Miss front has the ability to stabilize the Crimson Tide run game. Jalen Hurts has only completed 3 of 13 passes over 20 yards. The past two meetings Ole Miss has been able to beat Bama by forcing critical turnovers. The Rebels forced Florida State freshmen Francios to throw three picks in the first half. If the Rebels can get Tide in favorable third down situations; expect Rebel defensive coordinator Dave Wommack to dial up aggressive blitzes to force Alabama freshman quarterback to make mistakes. In their game against the Noles, the Ole Miss secondary showed some weaknesses of being susceptible of getting beat deep, but they also showed that they have the ability to make plays. Hurts have not shown the capabilities to take advantage of this Ole Miss secondary. Simply 11 points are too many to give the Rebels at home. Chad Kelly is going to have a chance to beat Bama in the fourth quarter. FSU, and that is in theI give the Tide an edge to win the game but the Rebels cover the spread. Bama wins in nail biter 27-24.
- UCLA (-3) @ BYU: I am going to make this short. BYU is coming off a downer after losing to rival Utah. This game is a must win for UCLA. UCLA star QB Josh Rosen is going to be prepared for what BYU will try to do after last year’s struggles. After going into Kyle Field and facing the best defensive front in the country, the Bruins are battled tested to get a W in Provo. UCLA will look to establish the run, and Bruin RB Soso Jamabo will have a big day. Bruins breakaway in the fourth quarter and win 34-21.