Game Information
Spread: Wake Forest -3.5
Date: Friday, Dec. 29 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, North Carolina TV: ESPN | Live stream: Watch ESPN, Watchespn apps
The Belk Bowl is the opening act of the weekend’s huge bowl game slate. The Charlotte bowl game features an intriguing ACC vs SEC matchup that pits the (7-5) Texas A&M Aggies against a scrappy (7-5) Wake Forest team. Jeff Banks takes over as the interim head coach after the Aggies released Kevin Sumlin earlier this month. New head coach Jimbo Fisher will be watching in a suite to observe his new team in action for the first time. On the other side, Wake Forest has been one of the most successful under-the-radar stories in college football. Dave Clawson has lead the Demon Deacons to consecutive bowl appearances, and Wake Forest will look to achieve their first eight win season since 2008.
Wake Forest is one of the most underrated teams in college football. There is good reason why the Deacons are 3.5 point favorites against a talented Texas A&M team from the SEC. According the SB Nation’s analytical S&P rankings, Wake Forest is ranked 36th in and Texas A&M currently sits at 64th. Overall, the S&P projects Wake Forest as a 5.5 point favorite over the Aggies compared to the -3.5 line the Westgate Superbook sets in Las Vegas. In addition, the Deacons have better resume due to defeating five of the nine bowl eligible teams they faced this season. Also, Wake Forest played tough against top-tier competition against Clemson and Notre Dame on the road. Meanwhile, the Aggies only managed to defeat one bowl eligible team all year (South Carolina). Betting trends seem to heavily favor Wake Forest; the Deacons are (9-3) against the spread this season and have been one of the best teams at covering the number. On the other hand, Texas A&M 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 game; that includes a 1-3 ATS mark in their last four bowl games. According the William Hill database, 60% of tickets have been counted for Wake Forest, and 90% of the money has been played on the Demon Deacons.
Quietly, Wake Forest has produced one of the most explosive offenses in college football and they have gotten better after every game. The Demon Deacons rank 13th in overall offensive efficiency, 32nd in points per game (31.6), 26th in total offense (443.4 ypg) and 30th in yards per play (6.1). Wake Forest’s offensive success is driven by the drastic play of senior quarterback John Wolford. Wolford had a tremendous senior season, setting career best marks in completion percentage (63.7), passing yards (2,792), rushing yards (615) and rushing touchdowns (10). Wolford was an All-ACC second team selection and was easily the best ACC quarterback not named Lamar Jackson. Wolford led the conference in passing rating at 156.7 and has had the best QBR in the country since the start of November. Wolford is just the 9th college football quarterback since 2000 to record 25 passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions. Wolford joins the company of Tim Tebow, Lamar Jackson, Alex Smith, and Robert Griffin as some of the other elite quarterbacks who have accomplished this feat.
Moreover, Wake Forest will miss dynamic slot receiver Greg Dorich, but John Wolford still has an arsenal of weapons to throw to. Wolford has thrown touchdown passes to seven different receivers, and six different receivers have accumulated 100 yard receiving performances over the course of the season. Wolford will rely on tight end Cam Seringe, the ACC all time receptions leader, to cause mismatches in the Texas A&M secondary. It will be interesting to watch Seringe matchup against Texas A&M’s All-American safety Armani Watts. Wolford can also expect production from slot receiver Tabari Hines, wideout Scotty Washington, and junior receiver Alex Bachman.
On the other hand, the Texas A&M quarterback situation has been plagued with uncertainty. Due to injuries at the position, Texas A&M has used three different starters all year. Collectively, the three quarterbacks have combined for 2,767 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, while adding another 323 yards and four scores on the ground. The Aggies have yet to name a starter for the bowl game, but it is expected that redshirt freshmen Nick Starkel will split time with true freshmen Kelly Monds. Each quarterback will have the pleasure of throwing to star reciever Christian Kirk, who will most likely will be playing his final game as an Aggie. Kirk is a first-round talent and will be the best player featured on the field. Unfortunately, Kirk has been under-utilized throughout the year due to poor quarterback play and I expect that trend to continue tomorrow afternoon.
Prediction: This is a rare occurrence where both the numbers and narrative storylines point towards a similar result. Wake Forest has both the betting trends and statistical measures in their favor. In an attempt to achieve their first eight win season in nearly a decade, the Demon Deacons are clearly the team that has more to play for. Wake Forest will be playing in their home state in Charlotte, North Carolina that is just an hour and 15 minute drive away from campus. Wake Forest will have the home crowd on their side and they are simply playing better football than A&M at this point in the season. This Demon Deacon squad is supremely talented and we failed to mention the superior talent they have on defense with Jabori Williams, Duke Elijor, and Jessie Bates. The Wake Forest roster is filled with sophomores and juniors and they will be a team that will be labeled an ACC dark horse contender next fall. Bowl games are often used to carry momentum into the next season, and I think the Demon Deacons will capitalize on a huge bowl opportunity to beat a team from the SEC. I love the Deacons to win this game and I think they will do it fairly easily. Final score prediction: Demon Deacons win 34-17.
