Yearly Record: 19-28
I’m down and battered right now. I went 0-5 on Thursday, but if you stick with me tonight, I’m getting back on my horse. After debating retirement from player props, I came to a realization. That realization is that we’re winning money tonight.
Nick Chubb Any Time TD -120
Chubb has eight total touchdowns this season, all of them on the ground. Cincinnati has allowed four touchdowns to running backs this season and they were against mid-tier backs like Chase Edmonds and Tyler Allgeier. When Cleveland succeeds, the offense goes through Chubb. An additional key factor is that Cincinnati is without starting nose tackle Josh Tupou who is out with a calf injury. Tupou is stout vs the run and leaves a hole in the Bengals front seven.
Myles Garrett Over 0.75 Sacks -105
I am a HUGE fan of the matchups Myles Garrett will have this evening. He’s going up against two tackles with PFF grades below 65%. Jonah Williams has allowed five sacks and La’el Collins has given up two this season. Burrow has also already been sacked 32 times this season which is an astronomical number. Garrett already has six sacks this season and will add to the total tonight.
Joe Mixon Under 67.5 Rushing Yards +100
Mixon is hot and cold. He only has two games this season over 67.5 rushing yards and the Browns defense has been good against the run. With Denzel Ward out and Greg Newsome banged up, I think that the Bengals look to attack through the air, rather than rely on the run. I really just can’t invest in a guy as streaky as Mixon tonight.
Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns -165
With all that being said about Mixon, I like the over 1.5 passing touchdown odds for Burrow. He has five games over 1.5 passing touchdowns this season and to reiterate my past message, the Browns are without their number one cornerback. While missing Ja’Marr Chase hurts, Cincinnati is deep and players like Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins have stepped up big time this season as true receiving threats.
Jacoby Brissett Over 218.5 Passing Yards (-115)
I was tempted to take the under, but then I checked the stats. Brissett has only passed for less than 218.5 yards this season once, and it was in week one. He’s averaging 21 yards over 218.5 passing yards in the past six games. While the majority were losses, that works in favor of the over. If Cleveland’s down, then that means they’ll be trying to sling the rock.