Record: 20-23
Leonard Floyd Over 0.25 Sacks -110
One of the top pass rushers this season has been Buffalo’s recently acquired linebacker, Leonard Floyd. He’s tallied 6.5 sacks through six games and is going to see a favorable matchup this evening. Luke Goedeke has a PFF grade of 73.2%, but has allowed 1 sack and committed 3 penalties. He’s a decent run blocker, but struggles in pass protection, and that’s where Floyd excels. Mayfield has been sacked 8 times this season through six games, but 7 of those sacks have been in the last four games. That steady uptick paired with Floyd’s pass rushing prowess make me feel good about this bet.
Cade Otton Over 26.5 Receiving Yards -105
I bet on Cade Otton receiving yards over once this year and he burned me. But that number was also much higher than 26.5 so I’m going back to the Otton well. He’s averaging 3.8 targets per game and has gone for over 26.5 yards twice this season with his most recent game against Atlanta being one of them. In the seven games Buffalo has played, they’ve allowed the opposing teams tight end to go for over 26.5 yards. The proof is there that the Bills struggle to defend tight ends and tonight will be no different.
Josh Allen Over 288.5 Passing and Rushing Yards -115
Only three quarterbacks have gone for over 288.5 passing and rushing yards vs Tampa this season. But the thing is, it hasn’t been the rushing that’s been a huge factor. It’s the pass game. Players like Kirk Cousins, Jared Goff, and Justin Fields took the top of the Bucs secondary and only compounded the damage adding rushing yards. Josh Allen is one of the most talented dual-threat QBs in the league and I think could hit the 288.5 mark without rushing. But he’s also a great rusher as he’s averaging 21.2 yards per game.
Rachaad White Over 46.5 Rushing Yards +110
Five running backs this year have surpassed 46.5 rushing yards in a game vs the Bills. Tonight, Rachaad White will be number six. He’s averaging 44.4 yards and 13.8 carries per game on top of having two games over 46.5 rushing yards. White is the Bucs clear-cut RB1 and rushing behind Robert Hainsey and Tristan Wirfs will increase his efficiency. We’re hammering the over on Rachaad White tonight.