I do not come to you claiming to be an expert. If fact, last season I was much more successful with college football gambling picks. But for this year, I turn my attention more to the NFL. Each week, I offer five picks that I think hold some value. Happy football everyone, and happy gambling as well. May you end the season in the positive.

Pick 1: SEA (-1.5) at. ATL

I love the Seahawks here. I have them as the best team in the NFC West this year, led by superstar QB Russell Wilson. This is going to be an offensive slugfest. The Seahawks defense is much different than in years past, but they do add Jamal Adams to the secondary. Atlanta is more of an 8-8 football team. Seattle is historically good at traveling east and covering.

Pick 2: LV (-3) at. CAR

The Las Vegas Raiders (I’m still getting used to it) head to Carolina for a Week 1 game that could feel like a trap. But I’m not sold on Teddy Bridgewater, especially this early. Carolina was putrid against the run last year. Josh Jacobs should have a field day on Sunday. This isn’t to say I’m all in on the Raiders, but I like them, even on the road, to take care of business.

Pick 3: ARZ (+7) at. SF

The Cardinals have played the 49ers close of late. Their two meetings last season (both 49ers wins) were by scores of 28-25 and 36-26. This year, the Cardinals are better, having added Deandre Hopkins. Defensively, Arizona did struggle last year, but drafting Isaiah Simmons should help. They also gain some help in the pass rush, signing Jordan Phillips after a breakout season in Buffalo. The 49ers should take a step back this season, while the Cardinals look to make a statement in Week 1.

Pick 4: DAL (-3) at. LAR

Dallas has to be good eventually, right? A lot of experts, and non-experts (like me), think this is the year the Cowboys break out. They are absolutely loaded on offense. The best offense in football from last year adds WR CeeDee Lamb, a speedster out of Oklahoma. Dallas also has a defense that ranked in the top ten last year. As for the Rams, they come off a disappointing 9-7 finish following the Super Bowl run the previous year. Their running back situation is a question mark, and although I do like Cam Akers, I don’t know how many touches he gets this early. Back the ‘Boys.

Pick 5: PIT (-5.5) at. NYG

Big Ben returns, on Monday Night Football no less. Who knows exactly what he has left in the tank, but it can’t be worse than Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. Even with those two in the mix, Pittsburgh rode an elite defense to 8-8, just missing out on the playoffs. With Big Ben back in charge, this should be a playoff team. As for the Giants, they are getting better, and do feature a fun offense. But they just can’t outscore that awful defense. It’s a lot easier to take road favorites with no crowd involved. I think the Steelers take this game with ease.