It was another HUGE week from the gambling corner. Another 4-1 record, which would have been 5-0 if the Dolphins hadn’t scored a meaningless touchdown late. We are now 8-2 on the year and feeling oh so good. This week presents another interesting slate of games. Let’s jump in and make some more money!
Pick 1: ATL (-3) vs. CHI
The Falcons cannot get more unlucky than they did last week against Dallas. For those living under a rock, Atlanta blew a 29-10 halftime lead that was also 39-24 with under eight minutes to play. Their special teams unit forgot how to use their brains, leading to a Cowboys recovered onside kick and an eventual game-winning field goal as time expired. Look, the Falcons defense is not good. But neither is Mitch Trubisky. The Bears defense is very good and usually, I believe in them. But Atlanta has too many weapons. Their offense has been stellar. Matt Ryan has been great. The Falcons come out angry and hold onto a lead, for once.
Pick 2: LV (+6) at. NE
The Cam Newton show was on full display on Sunday night, as he was one-yard away from upsetting the Seahawks on the road. The Patriots would fall, 35-30. This week, the red-hot Las Vegas Raiders come to town. I’m not quite sold on Vegas yet. Their defense needs some major work. Six points feel like a trap, but I’m jumping in. Derek Carr has found a real weapon in TE Darren Waller even without much help from his wide receivers yet. Their offensive line play has been solid, and this helps the dynamic Josh Jacobs out of the backfield. If the Patriots want to cover, they’ll need another huge week from Newton and company. Not that the Patriots offense won’t show up, but their defense has been porous. Until Stephon Gilmore starts to look like the defensive player of the year again, that defense is in trouble. Take the Raiders to cover.
Pick 3: PIT (-3.5) vs. HOU
Houston is what we thought they’d be: Deshaun Watson. But that’s about it. And honestly, even he has looked human at times this season. There’s also the fact they’ve had to play the Cheifs and Ravens back-to-back to start the season. The biggest issue for the Texans is their defense, which again has been met with tough opponents. The Steelers’ offense seems to be just getting its legs going once again under Big Ben, but the biggest jump in production came from James Conner, who tallied 106 yards rushing last week. Conner plus a dangerous receiving core will provide headaches for that Houston defense. Not to mention, Pittsburgh boasts the league’s second-best defense in terms of yards per game. It’ll be close, but the Steelers will pull away late at home.
Pick 4: ARZ (-5.5) vs. DET
I’m riding with the Cardinals until they let me down. That Kyler Murray-Deandre Hopkins connection has been beautiful to watch and in my eyes puts the Cardinals as a legit playoff contender. But the biggest asset the Cards have had this year that I was not expecting is their defense. It ranks 7th in the NFL currently. Granted, they did play Washington last week, but nonetheless it looks improved. Detriot has come out hot in both their games so far but eventually fell to both the Bears and Packers. The Lions best weapon, QB Matthew Stafford, just does not look good at all to start the year. Pair that with a bad defense and I’m taking Arizona big.
Pick 5: GB (+3) at. NO
This is a really interesting game. We never seem to quite know what the Packers are until the playoffs, but this is a good test early on. Aaron Rodgers looks angry this year. PFF has him as the number one quarterback in the NFL this season, as he has led the Packers to the league’s highest-scoring offense. Defense seems to always be the Achilles heel, but I like what they’ve done, especially in the secondary led by stud CB Zaire Alexander. Saints QB Drew Brees looks like he may be starting to slow down. PFF has him as the 29th best at his position. That paired with the loss of Michael Thomas equals a Packers win on Sunday Night Football. Back the Pack, and maybe sprinkle some moneyline on it as well.