Are you new to gambling? A veteran? A numbers nerd or always trusting your gut? No matter who you are, you’re looking for a bet to cash tonight. I have that bet for you.
Last night, I gave you Friday night college football action. The play was UAB on the money line +100. They lost by 3, but that was after leading for the first 42 minutes, losing their starting QB on their 2nd drive, and turning the ball over 4 times. Regardless, it’s a loss.
Record: 0-1, -1U
Background
Syracuse has been a pleasant surprise in college football this season. They’re 6-0 on the year and head to Clemson, South Carolina for a battle that could shape the ACC this season. Unfortunately for the Orange, they walk in as 14-point underdogs. That’s a very large spread for 2 of the 9 remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS. So where is the value in this game? I’ll tell you.
The Bet: Will Shipley O79.5 rush yards (-113)
Syracuse’s defense has been NAILS all season. They’re 8th in yards per game, only 4 yards behind Iowa. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the metrics. The Syracuse defense ranks 78th in total EPA, 87th in EPA/play, and 65th in success rate against the run. That’s our edge. Syracuse has given up 80 yards, what would be a winner, in 2 of 6 games so far. While that doesn’t necessarily breed confidence, keep in mind one of those games was a 59-0 win over Wagner who was never going to have much running opportunity. They also gave up 71 rushing yards to UConn’s feature back in a game that ended 48-14 so the game script by halftime would’ve been to throw. Add in a Purdue team that average’s 40 pass attempts a game and you start to see the edge.
Will Shipley averages 5.3 yards per carry for his career. He’s gone over 100 yards in three of Clemson’s seven games this year including 121 yards against Florida State last week. If this game goes according to Vegas, where it’s a few possession lead for Clemson, Shipley will get touches to run clock and gain yards to finish.