Betting Guide To The 95th Academy Awards

It’s Oscars Sunday and while it won’t be as eventful as last year, it should be a fun one.

This year there is a lot of buzz with movies like Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water being nominated along with great cinematic masterpieces like Everything Everywhere All At Once and Tár. If you’re a gambler and you are looking to step out of the world of sports, I have your whole guide for betting on the 95th Academy Awards.

NOTE: Lines according to Vegas Insider

Best Picture

The Favorite: Everything Everywhere All At Once -700

The Golden Globes is usually a solid gauge of how the Oscars will go. I don’t think that’ll necessarily be the case in 2023. At the Golden Globes, The Banshees of Inisherin won Best Musical or Comedy while The Fabelmans won Best Drama. Going into Sunday, Everything Everywhere All At Once feels like a heavy favorite to win Best Picture along with a handful of other awards. When it comes to betting on this film to win though, the payout wouldn’t be great and it’s going to face stiff competition. I’d say to maybe steer clear of Everything Everywhere All At Once for Best Picture.

Tempting Dogs: All Quiet On The Western Front +1400, The Fabelmans +2900

Now for some dogs. All Quiet On The Western Front is my personal favorite in this category and it has solid odds to win the award at +1400. I’d approach the Best Picture category by sprinkling some smaller bets on multiple films. I’d rock with both All Quiet On The Western Front at +1400 and The Fabelmans at +2900. As I mentioned, it won Best Drama at the Golden Globes and it has the makings of a Best Picture winner. It’s sentimental, schlocky, and his Steven Spielberg love letter to cinema. This could be the Academy getting in their feels and sharing the lovey-dovey sentiment that Spielberg does.

My Bet: All Quiet On The Western Front +1400

Best Actor

The Favorite: Brendan Fraser in The Whale -160

After rewatching both The Whale and Elvis, I understand why Fraser is the favorite. But he’s not the favorite by much. In The Whale, he delivers a gut-wrenching performance that drove the audience and myself to tears. Elements of his performance being very “feel good” make me think the Academy will bite on voting for him to win. He did get edged out by Austin Butler at the Golden Globes for Best Actor in a Drama, but it seems like there is growing fatigue on the Elvis film as a whole.

Joey Nofi from Entertainment Weekly wrote “For starters, Fraser transformed his body to portray Charlie, a man living with a life-threatening case of obesity, via various physical prosthetics as well as digital manipulation. He’s also playing a queer man, which, as we’ve seen with straight actors in this category’s history (Sean Penn in Milk, Tom Hanks in Philadelphia, Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote, etc.), is often a winning strategy.” Prior to writing this, I had never factored in the queer character element and it’s a genius observation. Fraser is who I’m betting on and you should too.

Tempting Dogs: Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin +1100, Austin Butler in Elvis +105

Best Actor this year is loaded. While Fraser is the favorite and who I’m putting my cold hard cash on, there are two other actors with a legit shot at taking the award. While I don’t think Colin Farrell was the best or even second-best performance in The Banshees of Inisherin, he did win Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes. The thing is, he didn’t have very stiff competition with Adam Driver in White Noise and Daniel Craig in Glass Onion. It’s understandable why his odds are at +1100.

For Austin Butler, I mentioned a growing fatigue around Elvis as a whole. I also think many people are still bitter about Rami Malek winning at the 91st Academy Awards over Bradley Cooper, Christian Bale, and Willem Dafoe because all he did was slap a mustache on and Lip-sync Queen. Austin Butler did more for his performance as Elvis than Malek as Freddie Mercury, but there is riot capability if Butler wins as a biopic.

My Bet: Brendan Fraser in The Whale -160

Best Actress

The Favorite: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once -180

Michelle Yeoh took home Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes. Her performance is utter dynamite and with these odds at -180, you could see a solid return on investment. I said it with Best Picture, but Everything Everywhere All At Once is being positioned for a big night. Possibly Lord of the Rings-esque. It’s a two-horse race between Yeoh and Cate Blanchett so I wouldn’t even think about betting on Ana de Armas, Michelle Williams, or Andrea Riseborough.

Tempting Dogs: Cate Blanchett in Tár +125

I thought that Cate Blanchett was outstanding in Tár. Granted I’m biased because this film hit me in the right spot being about a tyrant conductor. I love Whiplash and it felt like Todd Field directed a more pretentious Whiplash. That’s beside the point. Blanchett won Best Actress in a Drama at the Golden Globes and while many film writers are fawning over Yeoh, I wholeheartedly believe Blanchett could and will play spoiler this year.

My Bet: Cate Blanchett in Tár +125

Best Supporting Actor

The Favorite: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once -2000

Ke Huy Quan has been the feel-good story of award season. Much like Brendan Fraser, he’s had a career renaissance of his own. I’m happy for Quan, but I don’t think he gave the best performance of 2022 in a supporting role. He was great, but I felt that Barry Keoghan was better in The Banshees of Inisherin. Keoghan added more humor and depth than I felt from Quan, but that’s more of a preference than betting odds.

Tempting Dogs: Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin +1400

If you’re thinking of betting on Best Supporting Actor, I’d throw money on Keoghan and not Quan because of the odds. Keoghan at +1400 is a solid payout rather than Quan at -2000. It’s not a lock for Quan to win Best Supporting Actor so betting on him just isn’t smart. All in all, I’d probably steer clear of this category as a whole.

My Bet: Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin +1400

Best Supporting Actress

The Favorite: Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever +130

I’m kind of shocked that Angela Bassett is the favorite. Like really shocked. She’s a supporting actress in a superhero movie and these types of films don’t usually garner love. I think this is a good progression for the Academy, but I don’t think she’s great in this movie or at least the best supporting actress. She did win Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes, but momentum has quickly halted on her as Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon are picking up steam. At +130, I wouldn’t take Bassett as there are stronger competitors with better payout odds.

Tempting Dogs: Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once +165, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin +175

With Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Kerry Condon, we are looking at a loaded field. In my eyes, Curtis and Condon are the two top dogs and everyone else is an afterthought. As for Jamie Lee Curtis, critics are singing her praises because she played such a whacky role that turned out great in a creative film. It was a risky role that could have easily flopped and she killed it. Jamie Lee Curtis is also a critic’s darling who has been acting for multiple decades. This is her first Oscar nomination and I could see the Academy considering this and giving her the win. +165 odds lead to a generous payout and she’s got a legit shot to win.

In the case of Kerry Condon, she’s picking up more steam having won Best Supporting Actress at the BAFTAs and London Film Critics Circle. She’s dynamite and is my favorite supporting actress performance this year. Her emotion and purpose in The Banshees Of Inisherin are strong and comedic films chances at winning awards have grown more and more the past decade with the Academy. I’m betting on Kerry Condon at +175 to win Best Supporting Actress.

My Bet: Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin +175

Best Director

The Favorite: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert with Everything Everywhere All At Once -1800

There is a sentiment attached to the Daniels Duo and Everything Everywhere All At Once that has carried from the film’s release to today. At -1800, it’s not a great payout for them to win so maybe look at another nominee like Spielberg or Todd Field, but I’m not going to be shocked if the Daniels win. Everything Everywhere All At Once is being revered as one of the most creative films of the last ten years and it’s clear why it’s the favorite.

Tempting Dogs: Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans +850

I mentioned it with Best Picture that the Academy loves a schlocky element. They fawn over it. That’s what we get with Spielberg directing The Fabelmans. He beat out the Daniels Duo at the Golden Globes which was pretty shocking and in two of the past three years, we’ve seen the same director win Best Director at the Golden Globes and Oscars.

My Bet: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert with Everything Everywhere All At Once -1800

Best International Film

The Favorite: All Quiet On The Western Front -3500

At -3500, it’s no secret that All Quiet On The Western Front is the clear favorite. It’s the only international film to be nominated for Best Picture this year and for good reason. This feels like an open and shut case on who will win Best International Film.

Tempting Dogs: Argentina, 1985 +1000

Maybe you’re not 100% sold on All Quiet On The Western Front. That’s okay. I mean I think you’d be a moron, but it’s okay. The only film I could see making a real push for Best International Film besides All Quiet On The Western Front is Argentina, 1985. It’s a solid historical drama with great lead performances, but I just don’t think it can hold the jock of All Quiet On The Western Front.

My Bet: All Quiet On The Western Front -3500

Best Animated Film

The Favorite: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio -2000

I’m waving my white flag in utter defeat. Guillermo del Toro and his fascist rendition of Pinocchio keeps winning.

It won at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Movie Awards. Ironically, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is acting like Benito Mussolini and is killing every other animated flick in its path. I’m surveying the battlefield looking at a slain Marcel The Shell With Shoes On and a lifeless Turning Red. The film is good and pairs real-life history with a fun musical aspect. At -2000, I don’t think another film stands a chance.

Tempting Dogs: Marcel The Shell With Shoes On +1300

What’s not to love about Marcel The Shell With Shoes On? It’s cute, whimsical, and actually tells a great story. I’m going into every other bet with solid logic and research, but with Best Animated Film, I’m going to let my pride kill me. I will be betting on Marcel The Shell With Shoes On because it was my favorite movie of 2022. I wouldn’t take my advice here. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio has been tearing it up this award season.