Alright, last week was not ideal. After a 2-0 Tuesday night slate, I went 0-3 the rest of the weekday games and finished at 2-3. The good news is you probably are not dead broke by following me. But I learned some lessons last week, and I’m ready to take on this challenge. Let’s win some money this week, but first, let’s take a look at the updated MAC standings as a clearer picture starts to be painted.
MAC East
- Miami (OH)- 6-4 (5-1)
- Ohio- 4-6 (3-3)
- Kent State- 4-6 (3-3)
- Buffalo- 5-5 (3-3)
- Bowling Green- 3-7 (2-4)
- Akron- 0-10 (0-6)
MAC West
- Western Michigan- 7-4 (5-2)
- Central Michigan- 7-4 (5-2)
- Ball State- 4-6 (3-3)
- Northern Illinois- 4-6 (3-3)
- Toledo- 6-4 (3-3)
- Eastern Michigan- 5-5 (2-4)
Ohio (-18) at. Bowling Green- Tuesday, 7:30 p.m on ESPNU
Last week, I thought Bowling Green was good enough offensively to cover against Miami (OH). I was very wrong. Outside of Bryson Denley (138 total yards), this offense is gross. Grant Loy looked awful throwing the ball and the defense was gashed for big play after big play. Miami QB Brett Gabbert completed only nine passes and went for 225 yards and three touchdowns. For Ohio, it was a tough overtime loss to Western Michigan that ended their outside shot at winning the MAC East. But it’s a Bobcats offense that gets it done with the arm and legs of QB Nathan Rourke, who threw for 225 yards and two touchdowns and added 93 yards rushing in the loss. Ohio’s defense is not great, but as I mentioned before this is an awful Falcons offense. Bowling Green has lost its MAC games by an average of 35 points. Starting this week off by taking Ohio to cover.
The pick: Ohio (-18)
Eastern Michigan at. Northern Illinois (-4.5)- Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2
I was most wrong about Northern Illinois last week. They didn’t look great, nearly blowing a 21-point fourth quarter lead, but they were better offensively than expected. NIU relied on a heavy rushing attack, shouldered by 158 yards on 32 carries by Tre Harbison. Defensively, the Huskies were as expected. Not great. Eastern Michigan is on my good side after an easy cover against lowly Akron. I don’t love this defense, but it looked better last week than expected. The offense is talented, with weapons galore at receiver paired with a good running game. I’m not ready to buy into Northern Illinois, who started the season 1-4. Four and a half points also seems a little too high. I like the Eagles to cover and I’d maybe even sprinkle a little moneyline if you’re feeling zesty. I’ll ride with EMU to become bowl-eligible.
The pick: EMU (+4.5)
Toledo at. Buffalo (-7.5)- Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2
I’ve been watching this Buffalo team all year and still don’t know what to make of them. This is not a defense that should blow a 27-6 fourth quarter lead to Kent State. RB Jaret Patterson was electric as expected, rushing for 141 yards on 30 carries. But Kyle Vantrease’s 9-22 night is just not good enough. Toledo enters Wednesday with some momentum following a late push but an eventual 31-28 loss to Northern Illinois. This Rockets offense is very talented. QB Eli Peters finished 36-38 for 300 yards and three touchdowns last week. He spreads the ball around well, with four receivers having at least four catches. Paired with the rushing attack of Bryce Mitchell (125 yards, two touchdowns), this is a lethal attack. Buffalo may be the better team, but Toledo keeps this within a touchdown.
The pick: Toledo (+7.5)
Akron at. Miami (OH) (-30.5)- Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. on ESPNU
This is an absolutely wild line for a conference game. But this is the MACs best team against its worst. Miami comes off a 44-3 win over Bowling Green, while Akron fell 42-14 to Eastern Michigan. I’m pretty torn on this. Miami usually doesn’t blow teams out, but last week they did. Akron is not going to score a lot. So the question becomes can the Redhawks offense put up another 40+ points. I don’t think they do. Miami is going to win this game, probably by a decent margin, but 30 is just too high of a number. I’m going to keep telling myself Akron can’t be that bad. Let’s ride with the Zips and QB Kato Nelson, who’s been playing better lately. I’m still not quite sold on the Redhawks offense being this good.