I’d just like to start out by saying, I’m going to make predictions for all Big 12 teams in the tournament, and chances are, I will get every single one wrong. The Big 12, at least everyone except Kansas, has been wildly inconsistent all year. Add that to the fact that most of college basketball has been inconsistent all year and there are no true dominant teams, like that undefeated Kentucky team from 2014-15 that everyone thought would dominate, and this tournament is all but impossible to predict. But, the Big 12 is my zone, so if there is a conference that I would probably be able to accurately predict, it will be the Big 12, so without further adieu…
Kansas State– The first Big 12 team in the tournament actually plays tonight, in a play-in game. Kansas State is matched up with Wake Forest, with a chance to play Cincinnati. Kansas State is a 1.5 point favorite over Wake Forest and I think they cover that as well as win the game. Wake Forest is an offensive minded team and Kansas State played phenomenal defense in the conference tournament, I think Kansas State wins this game. Kansas State will play a good game against Cincinnati and they have a chance to win, but at the end I think Bruce Weber will mess up and cost Kansas State the game.
Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
West Virginia– I’m going to try really hard not to be too biased here, but after all, I do go to West Virginia. This Mountaineers team is an anomaly, one of the best defensive teams in the country all year, but arguably the most inconsistent team I have watched all year. They go from scoring 16 in the first half against a 13 loss Kansas State team, to beating a number 1 seed Kansas by 16, to losing to an Oklahoma team that didn’t make the tourney, to beating a 3 seeded Baylor by 21. West Virginia has a shot to lose to Bucknell, but I don’t think they will. I think Princeton beats Notre Dame so West Virginia should get an easier shot to go to the Sweet 16, where they’d probably be matched up with Gonzaga. Mark Few in March, West Virginia wins, in my opinion. Gonzaga hasn’t played a defense near as tough as West Virginia and will struggle, onto the Elite 8. West Virginia could play Arizona tough, but I don’t think Arizona will lose this game, I like Sean Miller’s coaching too much, along with skilled ball handlers and a matchup nightmare with Lauri Markkanen, West Virginia’s path will end in the Elite 8.
Iowa State– The reigning Big 12 conference tournament champions, what will they do in the tourney? Answer: lose to Nevada in the round of 64. Nevada has a trio of 3 point shooters, and Iowa State doesn’t have the big men inside to take advantage of a smaller mid major team like, say, Baylor would. Even if they beat Nevada, Swanigan and Purdue will dominate them in the second round of the tournament. Expect Iowa State to get bounced early, as they seem to have made a habit of.
Oklahoma State– Oklahoma State coach Brad Underwood made a huge impact last year taking his Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks to a win over West Virginia, but this year will be different. As a lifelong Ohio State fan this will be hard to say, Michigan will win. Yuck, sounds awful off the tongue, but it’s true. Michigan is one of the most cohesive teams I have seen, coming off a roll of wins over the likes of Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Oklahoma State is a good team, but I don’t think they’ll even win to have the chance to take down Louisville.
Baylor– There are 2 trendy 14 over 3 picks in this year’s tournament, one is “Dunk City” Florida Gulf Coast over Florida State and the other is New Mexico State over Baylor. Do I think Baylor loses? No. Is it possible? Scott Drew. I think Baylor will beat NMSU but then they will run into the train that is SMU. SMU is a great team that I believe will take down Baylor. If Baylor is able to get past SMU, they have the size advantage, with Jonathan Motley and co, to take down both Duke and Villanova, which would propel them into the Final 4. Baylor won’t do that though, they will lose to SMU in the Round of 32. Sorry Baylor but, Scott Drew.
Kansas– Lastly for the Big 12, their best team, Kansas. Led by probable NCAA Player of the Year Frank Mason and an outstanding coach in Bill Self, Kansas is always dangerous come tourney time, and they are a great team this year. They capable of winning it all, but they won’t. Kansas has one weakness: big man play. As fellow contributor Austin Brown said on twitter, @AustinOBrown, “If you’re Kansas, you’ve gotta be hoping for any outcome that doesn’t put Purdue as the 4/5 seed in your region.” Well, bad news Kansas, Purdue is your 4 seed. Purdue has the best duo of big men in the country. And after beating Vermont, will play a Nevada team that can beat Iowa State, win that, and then in the Sweet 16, Kansas will have their nightmare matchup. Kansas won’t struggle with a 16 seed (probably NC Central) and I doubt they will struggle with a 9 seed Michigan State in round 2, even though Michigan State has Izzo. Purdue will cause problems and will knock Kansas out of title contention. One Yahoo Sports columnist, Dan Wetzel, has WVU over Kansas in the final, but neither of those teams will make it, unfortunately.
The Big 12 has the ability to have a huge tournament, but didn’t get the best draw ever. I believe WVU will go the furthest of all conference teams, but will be eliminated in the Elite 8, leaving no Big 12 teamas in the Final 4. For arguably the second best conference in the country, this is a terrible outcome, hopefully they rebound next year.