When the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers compete for the 55th Lombardi Trophy this upcoming Sunday night, the game forever becomes emblematic of the season endured over the course of the past six months. That’s the case with every Super Bowl, too.
But the meaning of Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida goes beyond football; see, what we’ll hear in abundance during the commercial breaks is the following phrase: in these unprecedented times.
While you and I probably share the sentiment that we’ve grown tired of a somewhat meaningless expression, if there’s one more appropriate usage, it falls on Sunday, February 6, 2021.
February 2, 2020 – Super Bowl LIV
Just one year ago today, the Chiefs completed an improbable championship run, capped off with another come-from-behind playoff victory. The grand celebration in Kansas City brought closure to another year of the NFL. At the time of the victory, the United States reported nine confirmed positive cases of COVID-19.
One month later, a country in limbo on the verge of a potential public shutdown, worry and panic set in, not only about public and personal health, but about livelihoods. Reality didn’t quite sink in until the cancellation of college basketball conference tournaments, quickly followed by the cancellation of March Madness. States shut down in-person shopping, indoor restaurant seating and gatherings of more than ten people.
Major League Baseball shut operations down in the middle of spring training. The NBA and NHL postponed their regular seasons with just weeks remaining. The NFL enjoyed the luxury of the offseason.
Baseball eventually returned with a sixty game irregular season schedule, and the NBA and NHL finished their seasons with expanded playoffs in bubble environments.
The NFL cancelled the preseason and jumped straight into the regular season. Teams permitted fans to attend at the team’s discretion (in accordance with city guidelines), but not every home game was a home environment. Moderated pumped-in crowd noise, stadium sound effects and cardboard cutouts didn’t cut it.
A pandemic looming like a storm cloud above an impacted season, in multiple instances felt like cancellations could strike. Instead, the NFL completed all 256 games in the normal seventeen week timeframe; even if it meant playing on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon, the NFL accomplished what few believed was possible.
February 6, 2021 – Super Bowl LV
That brings us to this upcoming Sunday. The game we’ve waited for that they’ve played for is finally upon us.
The Storylines
- For the first time ever, the Super Bowl takes place in the home stadium of one of the participants.
- Is this the passing of the torch from Brady to Mahomes?
- Can Tampa Bay’s defense be the immovable object to Kansas City’s unstoppable offense?
- Will The Weeknd have bandages on his face during the Pepsi Super Bowl Halftime Show?
- Do the 7,500 vaccinated healthcare workers invited by the NFL root for the Chiefs or Buccaneers?
You better, you bettor, you bet.
I opened by first gambling account just ahead of the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl one year ago. The thrill of putting just five dollars on the Chiefs to cover spurred my (perfectly healthy) obsession with player props.
Here’s the deal with player props: there’s far greater value, which means it’s low risk for a higher reward per bet. However, low risk bets stacked on top of each other quickly become high risk wagers.
Be careful, be smart and most importantly, have fun.
Let’s talk numbers…
Including the playoffs, the Chiefs boast a 16-2 record over the course of the 2020 season, but have covered the spread just seven times, failing to do so ten times and pushing once.
For Tampa Bay, also including the postseason, the Buccaneers sport a 14-5 overall record, 11-8-0 against the spread.
Tampa enters as three-point underdogs in their own home stadium.
As for overs and unders, Kansas City leveled out, hitting nine overs and nine unders. Tampa matched their own ATS mark, hitting eleven out of eighteen overs.
The total sits at 56.5 (as of 2/2).
What does all of this mean? If you’re expecting a Kansas City victory, take their moneyline (KC -166). If you’re pulling for a Tampa Bay Tom Brady upset, roll with the Buccaneers +3.0 (-102). This isn’t unpopular commentary, either.
A combined 20-17 hitting the over in 2020, it’s a risky play considering the last two Super Bowls, both involving either Brady or Mahomes, went under. Don’t let that scare you off; 56.5 is a modest number.
When these teams played against each other earlier in the season, the Chiefs barely held on to victory, edging out the Bucs, 27-24. That score would not hit the over for Sunday. However, both offenses seemingly have hit their stride at the most important time. My ticket for Sunday includes the over 56.5.
Dancing In The End Zone…
The easiest way to become involved with the action on Sunday is through spreads and point totals. The best way is through individual player props and touchdown props.
For the full slate of scorer picks, check out this week’s episode of The Campus Cover when it drops on Friday morning.
In the meantime, here’s a preview of some names on the ticket:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire likely returns to action on Sunday after missing several weeks with a hip injury sustained against the New Orleans Saints in Week 15. Le’Veon Bell’s status is up in the air, too, although it appears doubtful that he’ll play on Sunday. With Damien Williams opting out of the season before it began, Darrel Williams is the only true running back threat to take carries away from Edwards-Helaire.
CEH notoriously struggled early in the season in goal-to-go situations, and recovering from a hip injury could alter his power run usage. That said, keep tabs on his name as the week progresses, but if healthy enough, +165 as an anytime touchdown scorer is decent value for a running back, even in an Andy Reid scheme.
For Tampa Bay, for two consecutive weeks, Mike Evans is the first player to reach the end zone for either side. Willing to press your luck and make it three in a row? Evans sits at +900 to do it again, this time on football’s grandest stage.
Tom Brady is unlikely to break the plane himself on Sunday, but unless disaster strikes for Tampa Bay, he’s sure to find the end zone through the air a few times. Three touchdowns last week against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game looked almost effortless. A shaky second half prevented the greatest quarterback of all time from adding to the total. Brady to throw more than 2.5 touchdowns sits at +132. Lock. That. In.
For more touchdown props and yardage wagers, MAKE SURE to subscribe to The Campus Cover wherever you listen to podcasts. On Friday’s episode, Cody and I cover every meaningful prop heading into the final football Sunday for eight months.
