It’s the best time of the year, March Madness. If you know me AT ALL you know that as much as I love sports year-round, this is truly my favorite time of the year. Last year, in my 7th year of keeping my bracket and stats along with it, I picked the correct champion. I don’t say this lightly, it was one of the better feelings of my life. However, there’s a problem. Some might say that picking one of the most dominant tournament runs of all-time makes it a Mickey Mouse championship. I would disagree seeing as UConn was a 4 seed, but this year might be a legacy defining year for me.
The Stats
Disclaimer- I keep all of these stats in a Google Doc and if you click the link from above you can see all of my previous brackets. It is important to note that I don’t pick them as I go. I pick every game, including the First Four. If a team I have in the Final 4 loses in the Round of 32, that’s 4 losses so there’s no tomfoolery.
- Overall Record: 244-225 (52%)
- Best Year: 2019 (41-26)
- Worst Year: 2018 (29-38)
- Round of 32 Record: 147-77 (65.6%)
- Best Region: West 65-40 (61%)
- Worst Region: East 49-56 (46.8%)
- Biggest Upset Picked correctly: 14>3, Stephen F Austin> West Virginia (2016)
- Champions picked by year-
- 2016: Michigan State
- 2017: UCLA
- 2018: Michigan State
- 2019: Duke
- 2021: Gonzaga
- 2022: Arizona
- 2023: UConn
2024 Bracket
The Diagnosis
I just want to share some thoughts from different perspectives on the bracket.
Non-Gambling
- If you’re a soccer fan who is just getting into March Madness, the East region in the top left, is the group of death. It holds the number 1 overall team and reigning champions, UConn. Also in the group at the 2 seed is Iowa State who just beat a 1 seed in Houston by 28 in their conference championship game. The 3 and 4 seeds Illinois and Auburn just won their respective conference tournaments. 5 seed San Diego State is returning after losing to UConn in the National Championship last year. 6 seed BYU that is top 16in both KenPom and NET rankings which are 2 college basketball power ranking type metrics.
- In the west, we could see Caleb Love for Arizona, who went to the Final 4 with North Carolina 2 years ago, play in a rematch to go to the Final 4 against his old team.
- Every year it seems like one of the teams that plays in the First Four wins their play-in game and wins their second game too. I think that happens in this region with Colorado. I think they’ll beat Boise State and then beat Florida. Boise State may be able to beat Florida too, no disrespect.
- Lastly, in the Midwest region, we could see a drought-breaker or history made. For 1 seed Purdue, they haven’t been to a Final 4 since 1980. Tennessee, the 2 seed, hasn’t EVER seen a Final 4. Their coach, Rick Barnes, has been under scrutiny for going to a singular Final 4 in his 37 years as a head coach and hasn’t gone since 2003. There’s also an abundance of coaching in this group. Matt Painter, Rick Barnes, Greg McDermott, and Bill Self are coaches for the first 4 seeds who have all won 450+ games and all have a winning percentage over 60%. That doesn’t include in the Round of 32 a matchup between Mark Few and Will Wade who are both very notable in their own right. We still haven’t touched on Lamont Paris, who has turned around South Carolina in a hurry against Dana Altman, who fits in the 450+ wins and 60% winning percentage club.
Gambling Related
- A game in the round of 32 you HAVE to watch and keep your eye on is College of Charleston vs Alabama. The over/under is currently 173.5 which means the over would take 87 points from both teams to get there. I bet you will see upwards of 70 attempts from 3 point range in this game.
- Drake, Nevada, Michigan State, TCU, and New Mexico, who are all lower seeds in their matchup, are all slight favorites in their Round of 32 matchups.
- UConn, Houston, and Purdue, all 1 seeds, have odds under +1000 to win the title.
- My Favorite bet: McNeese State Sweet 16 +850. They’re going to have 2 very tough games, but their coach is a much better coach than you’ll usually get from your normal Cinderella story in waiting. If they can beat Gonzaga, they’ll potentially get Kansas, who’s bench is very shallow, or a scary Samford team, but then again I’d take the coaching as the ultimate tiebreak there.
Good luck to you on your March!