Michigan absolutely bombed their regular season finale against Wisconsin. Two OT losses saw the Wolverines slip all the way to second-to-last place above only Michigan State. That’s a major red-flag for a team that I thought had a little bit of a run to the NCAA tournament in them.
Minnesota’s weekend went quite the opposite. The Gophers hosted twelfth-ranked Arizona State and summarily swept them. That’s gotta be a huge confidence boost for a team that needed it heading in to the most important time of the year.
Michigan
Michigan is one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten. Their play this season obviously hasn’t reflected that. Losing forward Josh Norris (Ottawa Senators prospect, former first round pick) to a season-ending injury didn’t help. Future NHL blueliner Quinn Hughes is still in the mix. He’s already announced he intends to sign with Vancouver when Michigan’s season concludes. That could be a lot sooner than I thought it would be.
Michigan’s goaltending has been mediocre at best. Neither goalie reached the .900 save percentage for the season. That’s an issue. That’s not just mediocre, it’s straight up bad.
The Wolverines still managed to rank third in goals-against. They also ranked third in Big Ten scoring. The offense isn’t the issue here. They’re scoring just over three goals a game and allowing… just over three goals a game. They’re the third-best penalty killing team in the conference, but they’re the second-worst team on the man advantage, though. Killing penalties is great, but being that bad on the power play drastically lowers your chances of winning. Even-strength scoring tightens up in the postseason making the power play of the utmost importance. That 13.8% success rate will have to come up.
Minnesota
The Gophers were solid in Big Ten play all season and were good enough to finish third. Minnesota tied Michigan for third in both goals for and goals against. They are led offensively by junior forward Rem Pitlick, one of the Big Ten’s leading scorers.
Special teams is what really set Minnesota apart this year. The ranked first in the Big Ten in power play efficiency and second in penalty killing. There’s nothing for me to even nitpick with their performance in these situations. It’s how they placed third in the league and why I think they have a very good chance to beat Michigan.
Players to Watch
Michigan, D Quinn Hughes
He’s got at least two more games with Michigan. If he wants his Michigan career to continue, he’ll need to take his play to another level.
Minnesota, F Rem Pitlick
The guy was a force on the power play and even led the conference in goals on the man advantage. He could have a weekend to remember against some bad Michigan goalies.
Keys
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is where Minnesota can impose their will. Michigan needs to stay out of the box and capitalize on what chances they do get. Michigan’s power play is bad and Minnesota is great at killing penalties. Michigan must win the special teams situations if they want to win this series.
Prediction
Minnesota, 2-1. Michigan has the talent to win this, but Minnesota is a harsh matchup.