Michigan State limped into a last-place finish in Big Ten play after splitting their last series with Ohio State. The Spartans needed to sweep the Big Ten champs to even hope to avoid a road trip to a place that was not kind to them this year.
Notre Dame is a very talented hockey team. They underwhelmed me a bit this year. I still see a team that, when they’re on, can make another Frozen Four run. That run starts right here against the Spartans.
Notre Dame
The Irish finished second in the Big Ten and had great success against the Spartans this year. They’re always gonna be talented and they’re capable of beating anyone in the country. They have a balanced scoring attack that complements a great tandem of netminders.
Notre Dame scored 2.97 goals per game, good enough for 24th nationally. That seems like a good spot to be in until you look at the rest of the conference.
Notre Dame ranked dead last in Big Ten scoring. The 2.97 goals per game comes from all games. In conference play? 2.62 goals per game. By comparison, Michigan State scored 2.83 per game in conference play.
The good news for the Irish is their defense was great in Big Ten play. They ranked second in goals against and fourth on the penalty kill. Furthermore, they were the least-penalized team in the conference. Staying at full strength is absolutely crucial to postseason success. Notre Dame not only stays out of the box, they kill off what penalties they do take effectively.
The Irish were good on the PK, killing off about 78 percent of power plays against. They also ranked fourth in power play scoring, coming into tournament play with a 24.68 success rate in man-advantage situations.
Michigan State
The numbers were not kind to Michigan State this year. Michigan State ranked last or second-to-last in goals for, goals against, penalty killing and shorthanded goals, which they scored none of. Scoring was a major issue aside from the KHL line led by Hobey Baker frontrunner Taro Hirose. Michigan State’s offense lived and died by the success of that line every game.
The penalty kill ranked last in the Big Ten. That issue was magnified by the 111 penalties they took in Big Ten play. If your PK is that dismal, the last thing you can afford to do is take penalties. Not only can Michigan State not kill penalties as effectively as their counterparts, their offense cannot afford to be shorthanded. Even when they kill off a penalty, that’s two minutes in which the other team’s goalie can essentially just hang out. For those at home, that’s a tenth of a period. They take almost ten penalties a game. That’s an entire period killing penalties, assuming you kill them all off. And Michigan State does not kill off all their penalties.
The power play, like 5v5, heavily relied on the scoring of the KHL line. The Spartans converted nearly 23% of their man-advantage situations. That’s a fine number but absolutely nothing to be too excited about.
Players to Watch
Notre Dame, G Cale Morris
The junior netminder posted the second-highest save percentage in the conference behind Ohio State’s Tommy Nappier. The Colorado native will have to stand tall for the Irish if they continue to struggle to score against other Big Ten teams. Although Michigan State isn’t the most dangerous team in the conference, the KHL line can get hot and steal games when MSU shouldn’t win. Morris will have to be on his game for the rest of the season.
Michigan State, F Taro Hirose
Michigan State’s leading scorer is going to have to lead the charge for the Spartans to have any chance in this best-of-three series. There are a number of things that will need to go right for the Spartans to be successful but scoring can mitigate some issues. If he can spark a hapless offense, Michigan State can all of a sudden be a dangerous team.
Keys
Michigan State has to stay out of the penalty box. Their offense simply cannot afford to spend an extended amount of time killing penalties. The Spartans have to be disciplined. If they’re not, it’ll be a short weekend for the Spartans.
Notre Dame will need to score more than they do. The Irish power play should get opportunities to score. If they can convert on their chances and keep Michigan State from getting any momentum on the power play, Notre Dame should win this weekend.
MSU has proven they can compete with and beat anyone. They’re also capable of losing to literally anyone. Notre Dame is the better team and they could get some extended rest if they win the first two games of the series. I just don’t see a scenario in which Michigan State wins two of these three games.
Prediction
Notre Dame, 2-0