For the past three years I have worked on building a college football model that is able to separate narrative from what is actually happening on the field. This model has been able to successfully predict games for two years and this third edition should be even better. The AGI Model is based on previous year/returning production and recruiting rankings to predict the strength of teams this year. The model projects the expected points each team would score and allow against an average FBS team. Team schedules are then input with the rankings to project three things: the amount of games each team is favored, a predicted score, and the win probability of each game. The model’s Big 12 projections match up well with the Student Union power rankings that you can find here.

Oklahoma has ran away from the rest of the league for most of this decade. Texas has started to narrow the gap under Tom Herman. Sam Ehlinger declared Texas to officially be back after last year’s Sugar Bowl demolition of Georgia. Some people believe that there are playoff aspirations for the Longhorns. Jalen Hurts’ transfer to Oklahoma gives the Sooners another competent transfer QB. Lincoln Riley’s style of play may fundamentally change around his running ability. Iowa State is another team emerging, but after some big losses, my Big 12 projections have them slowing down.