Yearly Record: 38-45
Stefon Diggs Any Time Touchdown +110
While New England has a superb pass defense, they’ve had rare matchups with elite pass catchers like Diggs. The best receivers they’ve encountered includes Jaylen Waddle and Justin Jefferson who have scored against them. New Englands pass defense allowed three touchdowns last week, two of them to wide receivers. Diggs is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game and has 9 this season. Over the past seven games, he’s reeled in 5 touchdowns.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 61.5 Rushing Yards -105
Only five players this season have rushed for over 61.5 rushing yards against Buffalo. Some of the players that the Bills have kept under that magic number are Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. While Stevenson has been a solid back this season, I think the Bills defense is going to nut up tonight.
Matt Judon Over 0.75 Sacks +105
While Matt Judon was shut down against MY Vikings, he’s still a premiere pass rusher with 13 sacks on the season. He’s been remarkably efficient this season and is facing two inefficient tackles. Dion Dawkins may not play tonight due to injury, but he’s allowed 3 sacks and committed 7 penalties this season. On the opposite side, Spencer Brown has allowed 3 sacks, committed 4 penalties, and has a PFF Grade of 49.1%. Hammer Judon over 0.75 sacks to make some money.
Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards -110
I felt a bit split on this bet, then looked at the numbers. The Patriots haven’t faced a lot of mobile QBs this season, but when they have, they’ve been torched. Justin Fields rushed for 82 yards and Lamar Jackson had 107 yards against New England. Those two are the top rushing QBs in the NFL; Josh Allen is the fourth. Allen has seven games over 42.5 rushing yards and is averaging 51 rushing yards a game.