On Saturday, December 23rd, the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) and the South Florida Bulls (9-2) will do battle at historic Legion Field in the 2017 Birmingham Bowl. This is South Florida’s third time playing in the “The Old Grey Lady,” including last year’s 46-39 overtime victory over South Carolina. Texas Tech enters postseason play coming off a 27-23 victory over Texas that gave the Red Raiders bowl eligibility. The last time Tech saw South Florida, the Bulls came up short against UCF in an instant classic, 49-42.

It Starts with the Quarterbacks

Quinton Flowers, the signal-caller for USF, is an absolute stud. The stats speak for themselves: 2,600 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and only six interceptions, plus 972 rushing yards and 10 scores on the ground.

In the season finale against UCF, Flowers accounted for 605 yards and six touchdowns by himself. 605 yards!! “They’re like a video game offense,” Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury said at a bowl function on Tuesday. “We’re going to try our best to contain them.” Flowers is easily the best player on the field, and his ability as both a runner and passer will make slowing him down an arduous task for the Texas Tech defense.

On the other side, the Red Raiders have a pretty good player taking snaps for them. Nic Shimonek has put up typical Texas Tech QB numbers this season, throwing for 3,547 yards and 30 touchdowns with only eight interceptions. Shimonek did have some difficulty against above-average defenses, though. Against the top two defenses he played an entire game against (TCU and Iowa State), Shimonek was a combined 48-74 for 344 yards and two interceptions. He did, however, show his guts in the season finale against Texas, when Shimonek was benched but, in the fourth quarter, approached Kliff Kingsbury and told him that “he was about to run out of time.” Kingsbury put the quarterback back in, and Shimonek led the Red Raiders to victory. So which quarterback will do the leading on Saturday? That’s probably what will decide the game–which team leader will make the fewest mistakes.

Will There Be Any Defense?

The other determining factor in this game is the play of both defenses.

Will anyone be able to get a stop? The improvement of the Red Raiders defense has been well advertised this year, but statistically they’re still only ranked 98th in the country. Yeah, 98th is an improvement. The Bulls defense is ranked 28th overall, but 56th in passing defense. Against UCF, Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton threw for 373 yards and four touchdowns. So which defense will be able to get a key stop late in the game? Mack Brown from ESPN and the Texas Longhorns spoke about the importance of Bowl preparation. Whichever defense prepares the best this week and is fresh in the fourth quarter might be able to come up with a key stop to win the game (that’s a big maybe, though, because these offenses are really good).

Gray’s Pick

So who’s going to win the 2017 Birmingham Bowl? The more I read and listen to the coaches, the more I think this game will be very, very close. At the end of the day, though, South Florida is the better team. Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury cited the plays that changed South Florida’s season–a 4th and 20 conversion for Houston that led to the Cougars’ upset of the Bulls and UCF’s kickoff return late in the game that helped the Knights beat South Florida. “They should be undefeated,” Kingsbury lamented. While Texas Tech’s offense will put up points (and South Florida coach Charlie Strong acknowledged this, calling Tech a video game offense as well), I think the Bulls will have just enough defense and too much offense for the Red Raiders. I’ll take South Florida 45-37. If you want to see my hometown’s bowl game, tune in to ESPN at 11 am CT on Saturday.